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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
9
Top 91% · #16 of 17 ranked
Scored calls
79
13 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
10.3%
6 correct / 52 incorrect · 21 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-9.78%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-773.0%
Equal stake on all 79 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-10.28%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (14) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 44% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 8.4% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −773.0% | 3 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -10.28% | 3 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
21 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin is indeed rebounding right into the most recently lost old support of ~$78300, potentially as part of turning it into new resistance Turning this level into new resistance would confirm the breakdown that the latest Weekly Close kickstarted Invalidation starts with a reclaim of ~$78300 back into support $BTC #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
84 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.94 | 0 | 25% |
90 days · 30d
“#BTC Bitcoin has dropped into ~$78300 (blue) for a retest attempt The retest is now in progress Earlier this year (red circle), Bitcoin initially enjoyed a successful retest here but ultimately rejected from $82.5k to enter a retrace Ultimately, a Weekly Close below $78300 followed by a bearish retest just like in early May would likely confirm a breakdown $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The reality is that even if the Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom was in already... Then any deeper pullback into a new Macro Higher Low would confirm that Which would allow to build entries at prices not much higher than the absolute bottom And if you build entries there, those entries will outperform 95-99% of investors over the course of the entire Bitcoin cycle More, the Macro Higher Low would offer slight premium prices compared to the absolute bottom but at least that premium is the cost of buying on confirmation You don't need to buy the absolute Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom to do well in a Bull Cycle bitcoin:native #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has reached the Macro Triangle Downtrend Technically, Bitcoin is still experiencing Macro Lower Highs and would need to break this Macro Downtrend to enter into a new Macro Uptrend $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xdfTbgsnl0 https://t.co/fLe9rajX4K”
“It makes sense that $USDC Dominance is now in the process of retesting the early 2026 highs into new support (blue) While Bitcoin is treating the general area of February 2026 lows as resistance The inverse correlation is clear More, the blue level for #USDC Dominance is confluent with its Macro Downtrend (red) Successful retest here would enable further upside for USDC Dominance (Macro Risk-Off) #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin springs from the June lows into Green July in an effort to confirm the 50-Month EMA (purple) into new resistance A Monthly Close below the 50 EMA would likely set up a Red August to fully complete the 2022 Summer Fractal $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/82UFm3JagR https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC Bitcoin is showing initial signs of rejection from the 50-Month EMA (purple), closely mimicking 2022 historical price tendencies at this very moment in the cycle $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/gR5K0hIQBk https://t.co/tMHSdojFiJ”
“#BTC The 200-week SMA (orange) continues to act as support in the short-term This is the second consecutive week that price has been holding the SMA as support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/ZU8MV04MQ1 https://t.co/uyWh1jY9cC”
“#BTC The 50-Month EMA (purple) represents the ~$66000 price point for Bitcoin $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/zefkSbMwpq https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July $BTC #Bitcoin”
“During this Summer Relief Rally... Bitcoin will rally high enough to convince you that the Bear Market is over And then it will resume its downtrend $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin”
“You survived the -84.5% #BTC Bear Market in 2018 You survived the -63% $BTC crash in March 2020 You survived the -53% BTC crash in May 2021 You survived the -77% BTC Bear Market in 2022 You'll survive this 2026 Bear Market as well #Crypto #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Indeed, the 200-week SMA is acting as unreliable resistance as well, because Bitcoin has Weekly Closed above the SMA Technically, that now means that this dip is a retest attempt to try reclaim the SMA back into support Again, the SMA will likely act as unreliable support and resistance in the short-term But the macro perspective suggests price will try to get as close as possible to the 50-Month EMA (~$66k) this July So for Bitcoin to be able to do that, the 200-week SMA will need to somehow briefly act as support at some point to facilitate that additional relief rally into the general ~$66k area before breaking down from the 200 SMA in August, for example $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has deviated below the 200-week SMA, proving how unreliable a support this SMA can be In saying that, it's important to also mention that the 200-week SMA can also act as an unreliable resistance in the early phases of such a macro deviation Bitcoin is therefore likely to continue experiencing relief throughout July and so a brief reclaim of the 200-week SMA wouldn't be out of the ordinary to enable that limited relief-focused upside After that and over time however, Bitcoin would once again breakdown from the 200-week SMA to perform a deeper macro deviation below it to search of the final Bear Market bottom $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC It's Green July and history suggests Bitcoin will be looking to turn the 50-Month EMA (purple) into new resistance $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/Zn3KEAeKqI https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”