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Published 6 Jul 2026, 13:15 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:28 UTC
Rekt Capital
@rektcapital
Quoting · 5 Jul 2026, 15:13 UTC · context given to the AI
#BTC Bitcoin has deviated below the 200-week SMA, proving how unreliable a support this SMA can be In saying that, it's important to also mention that the 200-week SMA can also act as an unreliable resistance in the early phases of such a macro deviation Bitcoin is therefore likely to continue experiencing relief throughout July and so a brief reclaim of the 200-week SMA wouldn't be out of the ordinary to enable that limited relief-focused upside After that and over time however, Bitcoin would once again breakdown from the 200-week SMA to perform a deeper macro deviation below it to search of the final Bear Market bottom $BTC #Bitcoin#BTC Indeed, the 200-week SMA is acting as unreliable resistance as well, because Bitcoin has Weekly Closed above the SMA Technically, that now means that this dip is a retest attempt to try reclaim the SMA back into support Again, the SMA will likely act as unreliable support and resistance in the short-term But the macro perspective suggests price will try to get as close as possible to the 50-Month EMA (~$66k) this July So for Bitcoin to be able to do that, the 200-week SMA will need to somehow briefly act as support at some point to facilitate that additional relief rally into the general ~$66k area before breaking down from the 200 SMA in August, for example $BTC #BitcoinView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 64359.76 / 61709.19 − 1 = +4.30%d × r = +4.30% against a neutral band of ±5.18% → neutralOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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