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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
Caller Score
7
Top 93% · #20 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
128
14 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
35.2%
45 correct / 83 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-4.19%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-536.5%
Equal stake on all 128 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-5.31%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (15) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 31% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 31.3% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −790.7% | 3 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -5.31% | 6 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
326 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin is repeating Summer 2022 history In June 2022, Bitcoin broke down from the 50-Month EMA In July 2022, Bitcoin turned the EMA into new resistance And in August 2022, Bitcoin finally dropped to the same price where June ended and July began There's a good chance the Summer 2022 playbook will repeat during this Summer 2026 $BTC #Bitcoin”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
88 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.50 | 0 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“#BTC Bitcoin tends to often enjoy a Green July But then comes Red August Bitcoin was only ever able to produce meaningful upside in August during Bull Market Peak years of 2013, 2017, 2021 In the Bull Market peak year of 2025, Bitcoin actually produced -6% downside Whereas in Bear Market years, August would produce -17% downside in 2014, -9% in 2018 and -13% in 2022 $BTC #Bitcoin”
“You survived the -84.5% #BTC Bear Market in 2018 You survived the -63% $BTC crash in March 2020 You survived the -53% BTC crash in May 2021 You survived the -77% BTC Bear Market in 2022 You'll survive this 2026 Bear Market as well #Crypto #Bitcoin”
“#BTC In Bear Markets, every rally ends as a Macro Lower High Every price cluster develops a range of Re-Distribution Old supports turn into new resistances But at some point, Bitcoin will finally find a Bear Market Bottom and a new Macro Uptrend will emerge Every advance will register a Higher High Every price cluster will develop a range of Re-Accumulation And old resistances would turn back into new supports The Bear Market is over 70% complete Not long left before Bitcoin finally turns macro bullish for the next few years $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Indeed, the 200-week SMA is acting as unreliable resistance as well, because Bitcoin has Weekly Closed above the SMA Technically, that now means that this dip is a retest attempt to try reclaim the SMA back into support Again, the SMA will likely act as unreliable support and resistance in the short-term But the macro perspective suggests price will try to get as close as possible to the 50-Month EMA (~$66k) this July So for Bitcoin to be able to do that, the 200-week SMA will need to somehow briefly act as support at some point to facilitate that additional relief rally into the general ~$66k area before breaking down from the 200 SMA in August, for example $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has deviated below the 200-week SMA, proving how unreliable a support this SMA can be In saying that, it's important to also mention that the 200-week SMA can also act as an unreliable resistance in the early phases of such a macro deviation Bitcoin is therefore likely to continue experiencing relief throughout July and so a brief reclaim of the 200-week SMA wouldn't be out of the ordinary to enable that limited relief-focused upside After that and over time however, Bitcoin would once again breakdown from the 200-week SMA to perform a deeper macro deviation below it to search of the final Bear Market bottom $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The 50-Month EMA (purple) represents the ~$66000 price point for Bitcoin $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/SJgAJhykG0 https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“$USDC Dominance is on the cusp of retesting its Macro Downtrend (red) Successful retest there would likely precede a local top for Bitcoin's price action Because a successful retest for #USDC Dominance would enable further upside (Macro Risk-Off) #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/fSwqxwcm6H https://t.co/S8yGf5psWX”
“#BTC It's Green July and history suggests Bitcoin will be looking to turn the 50-Month EMA (purple) into new resistance $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/Zn3KEAeKqI https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC Almost 3 months later and Bitcoin has most recently dropped to new lows for 2026 $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/ML5awGmPbL”
“#BTC The game plan is now under way Bitcoin is currently relief rallying towards the 50-Month EMA (purple) in an effort to fully confirm the breakdown In other words, Bitcoin is repeating price action from the Bear Market Summer of 2022 $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/hJKvYORoy1 https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“$USDC Dominance is dipping right on schedule Meanwhile Bitcoin's price enjoys upside in this relatively short-term macro risk-on climate However, BTC's relief rally would probably end once USDC Dominance successfully retests the red Macro Downtrend as new support #BTC $BTC #USDC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin indeed rejected from the Macro Triangle Base Bitcoin indeed broke down from the purple 50-Month EMA And once Bitcoin turns the 50 EMA into new resistance on this relief rally, it will likely enter additional Bearish Acceleration over time $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/DVd6x3rov2 https://t.co/CyzS4wrzQI”
“#BTC The Four Year Cycle has prevailed $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/2UXa9XGbdE”
“#BTC Welcome to green July $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/4q1NqiM3p8 https://t.co/8jT5fusiAW”