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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
Caller Score
8
Top 92% · #17 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
79
14 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
19.0%
15 correct / 64 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-9.78%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-772.3%
Equal stake on all 79 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-10.12%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (14) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 43% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 14.7% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −772.3% | 6 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -10.12% | 0 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
165 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin continues to reject from the 50-Month EMA (purple) Bitcoin hasn't really offered any evidence to the contrary Still following 2022 historical tendencies $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/SU6LHiu6Xx https://t.co/lzyma7Z5cQ”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
84 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.93 | 0 | 25% |
90 days · 30d
“#BTC Bitcoin will likely Monthly Close below the 50-Month EMA if Bitcoin: - Continues to fail to reclaim the February/March lows (blue) as support - Keeps experiencing declining buy-side volume $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/tEpDiX2iGr”
“#BTC The upcoming Monthly Candle Close is slowly approaching And as things stand Bitcoin has only rallied +14.5% from the ~$60k historical demand area That's a far cry from previous rebounds which is a sign of progressively weakening support over time $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/9K4cgPJQNl https://t.co/Hu8UEadXjI”
“Looks like #BTC is rejecting from the 50-Month EMA $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/lzyma7Z5cQ”
“#BTC Bitcoin will likely go up for as long as needed to convince as many people as possible of a new Bull Run beginning And then it will pullback to continue its Bear Market $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has indeed picked up in its price action in the second half of July History tends to repeat itself $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/3Q7qTjnJTO https://t.co/n72n10p74a”
“It makes sense that $USDC Dominance is now in the process of retesting the early 2026 highs into new support (blue) While Bitcoin is treating the general area of February 2026 lows as resistance The inverse correlation is clear More, the blue level for #USDC Dominance is confluent with its Macro Downtrend (red) Successful retest here would enable further upside for USDC Dominance (Macro Risk-Off) #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin springs from the June lows into Green July in an effort to confirm the 50-Month EMA (purple) into new resistance A Monthly Close below the 50 EMA would likely set up a Red August to fully complete the 2022 Summer Fractal $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/82UFm3JagR https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC Bitcoin is showing initial signs of rejection from the 50-Month EMA (purple), closely mimicking 2022 historical price tendencies at this very moment in the cycle $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/gR5K0hIQBk https://t.co/tMHSdojFiJ”
“#BTC The 200-week SMA (orange) continues to act as support in the short-term This is the second consecutive week that price has been holding the SMA as support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/ZU8MV04MQ1 https://t.co/uyWh1jY9cC”
“#BTC The 50-Month EMA (purple) represents the ~$66000 price point for Bitcoin $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/zefkSbMwpq https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July $BTC #Bitcoin”
“During this Summer Relief Rally... Bitcoin will rally high enough to convince you that the Bear Market is over And then it will resume its downtrend $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin”
“You survived the -84.5% #BTC Bear Market in 2018 You survived the -63% $BTC crash in March 2020 You survived the -53% BTC crash in May 2021 You survived the -77% BTC Bear Market in 2022 You'll survive this 2026 Bear Market as well #Crypto #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Indeed, the 200-week SMA is acting as unreliable resistance as well, because Bitcoin has Weekly Closed above the SMA Technically, that now means that this dip is a retest attempt to try reclaim the SMA back into support Again, the SMA will likely act as unreliable support and resistance in the short-term But the macro perspective suggests price will try to get as close as possible to the 50-Month EMA (~$66k) this July So for Bitcoin to be able to do that, the 200-week SMA will need to somehow briefly act as support at some point to facilitate that additional relief rally into the general ~$66k area before breaking down from the 200 SMA in August, for example $BTC #Bitcoin”