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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
3
Top 97% · #18 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
65
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
38.2%
13 correct / 21 incorrect · 31 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-0.12%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-7.6%
Equal stake on all 65 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.09%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (19) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 42% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 37.9% | 3 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −10.2% | 25 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.09% | 3 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
31 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below ~$82200 Technically, this now positions price for a bearish retest of this level into new resistance Bitcoin would need to reclaim this level on the lower timeframes to start removing the bearish bias instilled by this latest Weekly Candle Close This level represented the May 2026 highs (red circle) and a key level for upside continuation in early 2025 (green circle), rendering it a pivotal reaction point for price $BTC #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.21 | 6 | 25% |
90 days · 1h
“#BTC Bitcoin keeps rejecting from the Lower High resistance (black trendline) In fact, today's Daily candle upside wicked beyond it, only to reject again More, Bitcoin keeps Daily Closing inside the orange support region and rejecting from the top of it The Weekly Close will take place in a few hours and so consistent rejecting from this Daily Lower High (black) would force price into a Weekly Close below $82500 Such a Weekly Close would position Bitcoin for a potential bearish retest of ~$82500 into new resistance And if that bearish retest occurs successfully then it could set price up for a drop below $80k within the next few weeks $BTC #Bitcoin”
“If #BTC performs a Weekly Candle Close below ~$82500 that would raise concerns of a fake-breakout from the $60k to $80k Macro Range for Bitcoin Especially if ~$82500 is then bearish retested back into resistance $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has bearish retested ~$83400 into new resistance For continued downside from here however, price would need to keep rejecting from the Lower High (red) and breakdown from this orange $80k region $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/K0wHHS2rRQ https://t.co/1Gdj1hCOAA”
“#BTC Interestingly, the two EMAs (purple 50-week EMA & green 21-week EMA) are converging and slowly building confluence in the mid- to high $70,000s Over time, this confluence will occur at higher prices given the dynamic nature of the EMAs More, a Golden Cross is set to occur over the next several weeks Historically, whenever a pullback has taken place into the two EMAs in early Bull Markets, the pullback bottom would not be too far off, especially whenever deviations below the EMAs would occur After all, successful retesting of the two EMAs in new Bull Markets has sustained bullish momentum for price $BTC #Bitcoin”
“$LIT - Lighter In the absence of bullish confirmation via a Weekly Close above the red Range High resistance... Lighter was always going to remain range-bound here (black square) As a result, additional consolidation to as low as the Range Low is a possibility #BTC #LIT #Lighter”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Monthly Closed above ~$82500 for September Which means Bitcoin will likely try to retest this level into new support this month A successful retest there could set up the next trend continuation History suggests this retest could get messy but let's take it one level at a time and not look too far ahead $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC It's always very tempting to just assume Bitcoin will go on and produce -30% pullbacks in Bull Markets After all, deeper pullbacks afford better prices for entries But it's not about the pullback depth we desire but about the pullback depth that is reasonably probable based on where Bitcoin is in the cycle Take the previous 2022-2025 cycle: Bitcoin only saw over -30% retraces in the Post-Halving period Pre-Halving retraces were much shallower, just over -20% each time Early-stage Bull Markets offer shallow pullbacks but those pullbacks are great opportunities for the long-run $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC ~$82500 for Bitcoin right now is the crucial level to reclaim into a new support because of its prior significance as a resistance on the Bear Market Relief Rally earlier this year $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/fLe9rakuUi”
“#BTC Slowly, that weakness is translating into Bitcoin's price action The Daily Bearish Divergences have affected price The RSI Lower Highs have persisted (purple) Bitcoin has lost the $77k level (orange) and is developing a brand new micro Lower High on price (black) And the multi-month RSI Higher Low (blue) is in danger of confirming a breakdown If the RSI bearish retests the Higher Low into new resistance (orange circle), that could very well confirm additional downside over time $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the 50-week EMA (purple) Technically, this could set price up for a bearish retest of the 50-week EMA into new resistance That said, at this very moment price is trying to reclaim the EMA If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin continues its positioning below ~$78300 which is the Weekly level that price needs to successfully retest as support to move higher At the moment, price is below this level, prepared for a Weekly Close below, which resembles May 2026 Such a Weekly Close followed by a bearish retest would likely send price lower $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The Daily Bitcoin Bearish Divergences continue and that weakness is slowly translating into price But Bitcoin would still need to confirm a breakdown from $77k (orange) to have this mounting weakness fully translate into price bitcoin:native #Bitcoin https://t.co/ckhQ4WfxWC https://t.co/tx0AexNf7F”
“#BTC Bitcoin has officially Monthly Closed beneath the Macro Downtrend for August However, given that this Macro Trendline is a dynamic resistance, by virtue of the passing of time price has moved beyond the Downtrend More, price has Monthly Closed above the April/May 2026 candle-bodied highs, which are now perfectly confluent with the Macro Downtrend Bitcoin now has a chance to post-breakout retest both the Macro Downtrend and these April/May Monthly highs in an effort to turn them into new support bitcoin:native #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is still hovering beneath the Macro Downtrending resistance, having upside wicked briefly beyond it Still the pivotal resistance and by staying below it, Bitcoin continues its series of Macro Lower Highs bitcoin:native #Bitcoin https://t.co/anBReUrDhp https://t.co/UZsfPfzT8W”