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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
3
Top 97% · #18 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
65
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
38.2%
13 correct / 21 incorrect · 31 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-0.12%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-7.6%
Equal stake on all 65 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.09%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (19) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 42% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 37.9% | 3 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −10.2% | 25 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.09% | 3 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
13 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Turning ~$83400 into new resistance to reject price strongly on a bearish retest would probably confirm this downside as a longer pullback rather than just a downside deviation like last time $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/Fmo3yZrpzR”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.21 | 6 | 25% |
90 days · 1h
“#BTC The upcoming Weekly Candle Close for Bitcoin could very well be decisive Weekly Close below the ~$82500 level could set price up for a bearish retest of that level to potentially build out a Right Shoulder within the $60k-$80k Macro Range ~$82500 is the transitional price point that will dictate where Bitcoin will build out its next market structure $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has dropped into ~$78300 (blue) for a retest attempt The retest is now in progress Earlier this year (red circle), Bitcoin initially enjoyed a successful retest here but ultimately rejected from $82.5k to enter a retrace Ultimately, a Weekly Close below $78300 followed by a bearish retest just like in early May would likely confirm a breakdown $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Every time Bitcoin produced a fake-breakout (red circle) from a price cluster (orange), price would revert back to the cluster And whenever that would happen, Bitcoin would Weekly Close beneath the Cluster Low and bearish retest it into new resistance to confirm additional downside (blue circles) Should Bitcoin reject at its Macro Downtrend and local top here at ~current prices... Then bearish retesting either of the levels located in the future blue circles ($72400 & $66200) would confirm additional downside lower Bearish retest of $72400 could send price into the high mid-$60,000s And bearish retest of $66200 could send price into the low $60,000s $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin continues to try to maintain the highs above the 50-week EMA (purple) while any upside attempt is being immediately rejected Bitcoin needs to hold here a good while to demonstrate price-strength confirmation Once again, if this is a Bear Market Relief Rally (and you can always make this case for as long as price maintains Macro Lower Highs), price won't be able to keep these highs for too long $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is rejecting from the Macro Downtrend A Monthly Close below the blue resistance would not just solidify another Macro Lower High but would also build a confluent resistance in association with the Macro Downtrend $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/bws93zlkT9 https://t.co/qBMC4CNknc”
“#BTC Bitcoin has reached the Macro Triangle Downtrend Technically, Bitcoin is still experiencing Macro Lower Highs and would need to break this Macro Downtrend to enter into a new Macro Uptrend $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xdfTbgsnl0 https://t.co/fLe9rajX4K”
“#BTC Bitcoin would enjoy aggressive buy-back at the 200-week SMA in July but that aggression is no longer evident this month Which ties in with what I mentioned 1.5 months ago: "The SMA could act as support in the short-term to enable limited upside relief this July before failing as support mid-term" Bitcoin indeed enjoyed support in the short-term from 200-week SMA in July but it appears that support is faltering this August $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The volume is worth noting as well Last week's Weekly Candle occurred on below-average buy-side volume but has been almost completely cancelled on by noticeably lesser seller volume Sellers can move the price by the same amount but on less volume $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/c9jZVUSQK9 https://t.co/NvZHxEEyQk”
“#BTC Bitcoin has already retraced the majority of last week's candle-bodied move, which puts the orange level in an increasingly tough spot to continue acting as support The orange level may very well be weakening as a level of buy-side interest $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/E6uNNmaBag https://t.co/nr3VJgufJe”
“#BTC Bitcoin continues to try to press into the July highs and the 50-Month EMA This is exactly what Bitcoin did in August 2022 Until Bitcoin clearly reclaims the 50 EMA as support, BTC is technically positioned to repeat 2022 history $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/yTVme90EMm”
“#BTC The 50-Month EMA (purple) continues to reject Bitcoin as we approach the new month of August It's likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover just like it did in 2022 $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/vhqur4GL4j https://t.co/TaXqMNX4xo”
“Looks like #BTC is rejecting from the 50-Month EMA $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/lzyma7Z5cQ”