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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 10 more calls to rank
Scored calls
5
4 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
60.0%
3 correct / 2 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
+2.03%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
+10.2%
Equal stake on all 5 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
+0.85%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (45) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 55.1% | 41 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −10.7% | 66 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.85% | 48 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
2 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“would make sense if bitcoin never ticks green ever again after that”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 40.0% |
3 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.07 | 55 | 25% |
30 days · 30d
“seeing this chart on the feed at resistance is not ideal https://t.co/ZfRxeIYLlm”