@Trader_XO · Strictly 2σ-3σ
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
11
Top 89% · #20 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
32
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
43.8%
7 correct / 9 incorrect · 16 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.14%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-4.5%
Equal stake on all 32 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.21%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (32) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 16% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 42.4% | 39 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −7.6% | 79 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.21% | 15 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
9 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@trader1sz Reminds of what happened in 2023... from 25k to 19k if it does”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 55.6% |
45 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.24 | 6 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“@dea_yora Currently have downside exposure via alts In terms of bitcoin - still positioned short and took some off overnight... Looking for a reason to cut and reverse...”
“Not surprised to see many alts to partially pullback tbh - as is generally the case when heading into uncertainty around CPI or FOMC... Key for me now in terms of context is that Bitcoin is trading below - Previous weeks vwap - Developing weekly vwap - Developing monthly vwap Session wise - failure to find acceptance back above the latter two then my expectation is that we should in theory trade down into previous weeks low... which is what I positioned for on Sunday night along with some alts. Otherwise not much else that I'm interested in at present - mainly talking to myself on here if anything... But pleased with the perfomance so far since coming back to trading in sept - still early days and anticipating a decent month in terms of macro driven volatility.”
“$BTC 60.5 - 61.3 the zone that needs to hold imo Previous weeks vvwap - 60.5s Monthly developing vwap 61.3 Acceptance through those - brings July lows into play... https://t.co/BHAv7AwDCp”
“$SOL The last time I traded this was in Jan/Feb- not been interested since... Having sold/shorted pretty much every significant high on solana in 2025 - there's nothing worth while swing shorting imo - but do believe it eventually slides lower. Major resistance at the 12/25 weekly bands.. I'll pick up spot when the bands / structure bases out and mometum is to the upside...”
“bitcoin:native and Realized price Its been one of my favorite metrics for when I've shifted to risk off mode looking for lower prices from significant highs.. Worked for me at the respective highs Nov/Dec 2021 and once again October 2025 Any periods below have represented value... Does it repeat again...? Embrace the downside... if it continues.... thats future opportunity. And eventually... the next cycle begins...”
“$BTC Trading below monthly vwap... Asks were stacked from mid 66s to 68 Equally resting bids are decent, but sell flows pretty much in control for now... Losing and staying below monthly vwap is key for me to see a continuation down towards 60-62k https://t.co/8hjn7D791F https://t.co/MW5JdfRpPd”
“$BTC As someone who shorted 125 before a few days before 10/10 - having been extremely cautious for several weeks prior - and laid out my reasoning weeks in advance on public streams on YouTube... The recent surge in pessimism now that BTC is trading around 60k does not surprise me tbh. Some voices seem almost gleeful that their late bearish thesis has been “right” (what took you guys so long initially?) Though I suspect many never actually traded it. Armchair trading is comfortable when you have a large following with a mega subscription service...cool Putting the trade on is what matters and all I care about. For what it’s worth... the lower BTC goes... the more attractive it becomes from an asymmetric upside perspective. Much of the doom... I suspect... comes from those who held all the way down. For those in cash... opportunity is ahead... even if there may be a few more storms to weather ? Time capitulation ? Watch for signs of seller exhaustion... and perhaps the kind of jaw-dropping capitulation event many of us know all too well as far back as 2018... For me... it makes sense to start thinking ahead about buying levels... and execution strategy. I’ve never been interested in catching the exact bottom... nor am I a pure value investor... Having aggressively shorted the market down from the November 2021 highs... I wasn’t interested in catching the exact bottom, could argue I was rather too defensive at the lows (I was in the recession camp - lesson learnt - dont get too caught up in the macro... but we all get it wrong once in a while and learn from it. I may be slightly late again - hopefully not, but probably and I'm fine with that... just as I was in 2023 when I bought back in around 30k... despite having traded the 15k to 30k range for the best part of nine months and out performed btc during that period. The biggest gains come from upside trends... momentum, the meat of the move. Embrace the downside... if it continues.... thats future opportunity. And eventually... the next cycle begins...”
“bitcoin:native Inefficiency traded into previous consolidation before the bigger drop in Feb Been fascinating watching the flows Continous aggressive sells being soaked by passive flows... offers lifted - shorts choked... price pops higher... will keep happening until the aggressors are longs opening into resistance for not much gain vs sellers forcing it down with no luck... Would like to see a move up into supply at 83/84 and eth to take out its highs around 25s H1 - 12/25 been intact nicely - first signs of weakness is when momentum dissipates. Conditions been great for ltf rotations”