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@Trader_XO · Strictly 2σ-3σ
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
45
Top 55% · #12 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
25
7 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
54.5%
6 correct / 5 incorrect · 14 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
+1.00%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
+24.9%
Equal stake on all 25 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+1.35%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (52) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 20% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 51.3% | 30 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −47.8% | 94 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +1.35% | 39 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
14 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“$BTC A weekly close around here should all but confirm the 12/25 EMA crossover... Historically, that shift has preceded some strong momentum phases higher. Interim, $82–83k is the key zone. For continuation longs, I want to see price trade through supply and find acceptance above it alongside the 365D rolling VWAP. Do that and there’s scope for the move to accelerate, particularly if shorts are forced to unwind and would look for price to trade the range qtr / value area high around 90k If rejected, $78.5–79k the 3-week composite VAH... is the first level I want to see hold. Lose that and I’d look for rotation back through value towards the opposite extreme as an intraweek trade. On a deeper HTF correction, $68–72k is the major reaction zone, 12/25 bands + macro mid. Hold there and the broader bullish structure remains intact. Even an extended range, imo, is more about accumulating value than invalidating the HTF thesis. My broader bias shifted in July: see earlier tweet. Spot: buying key levels / confirmed breakouts. Perps: trading level to level on both sides - which is mainly what I comment on... separate from the HTF view. Good luck”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 47.8% |
33 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.11 | 67 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“@ExitLiqCapital Just as well it isnt 2%... yet....”
“Not surprised to see many alts to partially pullback tbh - as is generally the case when heading into uncertainty around CPI or FOMC... Key for me now in terms of context is that Bitcoin is trading below - Previous weeks vwap - Developing weekly vwap - Developing monthly vwap Session wise - failure to find acceptance back above the latter two then my expectation is that we should in theory trade down into previous weeks low... which is what I positioned for on Sunday night along with some alts. Otherwise not much else that I'm interested in at present - mainly talking to myself on here if anything... But pleased with the perfomance so far since coming back to trading in sept - still early days and anticipating a decent month in terms of macro driven volatility.”
“$BTC 60.5 - 61.3 the zone that needs to hold imo Previous weeks vvwap - 60.5s Monthly developing vwap 61.3 Acceptance through those - brings July lows into play... https://t.co/BHAv7AwDCp”
“$btc 1st objective traded 👍 2024 value area range poc, confluent with prev months vwap Benson & Hedges https://t.co/2wKeB9H8TG https://t.co/uOGpCCamyj”
“$BTC Update from last week Was 57s it... ? Started chipping into longs after today's failed auction below the lows. The continued inability to find acceptance beneath the 2024 value area low remains constructive for considering longs until proven otherwise. Still a decent amount of stacked supply up above to work through yet... Overall I'm looking to trade the 2024 range value area / rotational trade with the poc as the 1st objective.”
“$SOL The last time I traded this was in Jan/Feb- not been interested since... Having sold/shorted pretty much every significant high on solana in 2025 - there's nothing worth while swing shorting imo - but do believe it eventually slides lower. Major resistance at the 12/25 weekly bands.. I'll pick up spot when the bands / structure bases out and mometum is to the upside...”
“bitcoin:native Leaning towards price continuing to trade developing Value for the week aheah - 64.5 <> 60.5 For me, the current weekly VWAP becomes the key pivot from here, confluent with monthly VWAP. Expectations - rotation lower - seller from higher Postioned: Remaining short from 81s with long hedge taken off - will be looking for an intraweek play lower.”
“bitcoin:native and Realized price Its been one of my favorite metrics for when I've shifted to risk off mode looking for lower prices from significant highs.. Worked for me at the respective highs Nov/Dec 2021 and once again October 2025 Any periods below have represented value... Does it repeat again...? Embrace the downside... if it continues.... thats future opportunity. And eventually... the next cycle begins...”
“$BTC Trading below monthly vwap... Asks were stacked from mid 66s to 68 Equally resting bids are decent, but sell flows pretty much in control for now... Losing and staying below monthly vwap is key for me to see a continuation down towards 60-62k https://t.co/8hjn7D791F https://t.co/MW5JdfRpPd”
“@follis_ There is realised price and theres another metric - I cant remember the name which is slightly lower than realised price... I used to track this in previous cycles... any reminders?”
“$BTC As someone who shorted 125 before a few days before 10/10 - having been extremely cautious for several weeks prior - and laid out my reasoning weeks in advance on public streams on YouTube... The recent surge in pessimism now that BTC is trading around 60k does not surprise me tbh. Some voices seem almost gleeful that their late bearish thesis has been “right” (what took you guys so long initially?) Though I suspect many never actually traded it. Armchair trading is comfortable when you have a large following with a mega subscription service...cool Putting the trade on is what matters and all I care about. For what it’s worth... the lower BTC goes... the more attractive it becomes from an asymmetric upside perspective. Much of the doom... I suspect... comes from those who held all the way down. For those in cash... opportunity is ahead... even if there may be a few more storms to weather ? Time capitulation ? Watch for signs of seller exhaustion... and perhaps the kind of jaw-dropping capitulation event many of us know all too well as far back as 2018... For me... it makes sense to start thinking ahead about buying levels... and execution strategy. I’ve never been interested in catching the exact bottom... nor am I a pure value investor... Having aggressively shorted the market down from the November 2021 highs... I wasn’t interested in catching the exact bottom, could argue I was rather too defensive at the lows (I was in the recession camp - lesson learnt - dont get too caught up in the macro... but we all get it wrong once in a while and learn from it. I may be slightly late again - hopefully not, but probably and I'm fine with that... just as I was in 2023 when I bought back in around 30k... despite having traded the 15k to 30k range for the best part of nine months and out performed btc during that period. The biggest gains come from upside trends... momentum, the meat of the move. Embrace the downside... if it continues.... thats future opportunity. And eventually... the next cycle begins...”
“$BTC -Feb highs -12/25 weekly bands -So far exhaustive action into resistance -Rejection on the profile - with price unable to hold above the 2 week high - Sunday timeline pretty excited... https://t.co/YidFj9l6Y6 https://t.co/E3aqZcX8pf”
“$BTC My main focus is previous weeks range... Brief upside moves that fail to hold tend to cast doubt on the likelihood of a genuine breakout, for which I'll continue to position for weakness, until proven otherwise. I still have no clear indication about what happens next... Possible third drive into feb highs is still for as long as previous weeks VAH / Mondays highs hold... through there then I think its far less likely outcome...”