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@Trader_XO · Strictly 2σ-3σ
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
34
Top 66% · #15 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
32
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
58.8%
10 correct / 7 incorrect · 15 neutral
Avg 24h return / call
+0.38%
Avg return per call (24 hour horizon)
Following every call
+12.1%
Equal stake on all 32 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.11%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (55) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 16% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 56.0% | 64 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −9.5% | 91 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.11% | 42 | 25% |
By month resolved · 24 hours horizon
7 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“$BTC A weekly close around here should all but confirm the 12/25 EMA crossover... Historically, that shift has preceded some strong momentum phases higher. Interim, $82–83k is the key zone. For continuation longs, I want to see price trade through supply and find acceptance above it alongside the 365D rolling VWAP. Do that and there’s scope for the move to accelerate, particularly if shorts are forced to unwind and would look for price to trade the range qtr / value area high around 90k If rejected, $78.5–79k the 3-week composite VAH... is the first level I want to see hold. Lose that and I’d look for rotation back through value towards the opposite extreme as an intraweek trade. On a deeper HTF correction, $68–72k is the major reaction zone, 12/25 bands + macro mid. Hold there and the broader bullish structure remains intact. Even an extended range, imo, is more about accumulating value than invalidating the HTF thesis. My broader bias shifted in July: see earlier tweet. Spot: buying key levels / confirmed breakouts. Perps: trading level to level on both sides - which is mainly what I comment on... separate from the HTF view. Good luck”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 55.6% |
45 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.05 | 45 | 25% |
All time · 24h
“Not surprised to see many alts to partially pullback tbh - as is generally the case when heading into uncertainty around CPI or FOMC... Key for me now in terms of context is that Bitcoin is trading below - Previous weeks vwap - Developing weekly vwap - Developing monthly vwap Session wise - failure to find acceptance back above the latter two then my expectation is that we should in theory trade down into previous weeks low... which is what I positioned for on Sunday night along with some alts. Otherwise not much else that I'm interested in at present - mainly talking to myself on here if anything... But pleased with the perfomance so far since coming back to trading in sept - still early days and anticipating a decent month in terms of macro driven volatility.”
“$BTC 60.5 - 61.3 the zone that needs to hold imo Previous weeks vvwap - 60.5s Monthly developing vwap 61.3 Acceptance through those - brings July lows into play... https://t.co/BHAv7AwDCp”
“$BTC Pushed on slightly higher than anticipated but nevertheless was a good setup reverse side from 64s for down rotation once it traded through local s/r Would also keep a watch on equities / indices eg soxl sold off aggresively during Asia session (eth) - cash session will be telling imo.”
“bitcoin:native Leaning towards price continuing to trade developing Value for the week aheah - 64.5 <> 60.5 For me, the current weekly VWAP becomes the key pivot from here, confluent with monthly VWAP. Expectations - rotation lower - seller from higher Postioned: Remaining short from 81s with long hedge taken off - will be looking for an intraweek play lower.”
“bitcoin:native and Realized price Its been one of my favorite metrics for when I've shifted to risk off mode looking for lower prices from significant highs.. Worked for me at the respective highs Nov/Dec 2021 and once again October 2025 Any periods below have represented value... Does it repeat again...? Embrace the downside... if it continues.... thats future opportunity. And eventually... the next cycle begins...”
“bitcoin:native Inefficiency traded into previous consolidation before the bigger drop in Feb Been fascinating watching the flows Continous aggressive sells being soaked by passive flows... offers lifted - shorts choked... price pops higher... will keep happening until the aggressors are longs opening into resistance for not much gain vs sellers forcing it down with no luck... Would like to see a move up into supply at 83/84 and eth to take out its highs around 25s H1 - 12/25 been intact nicely - first signs of weakness is when momentum dissipates. Conditions been great for ltf rotations”