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@RaoulGMI · Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 9 more calls to rank
Scored calls
6
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
25.0%
1 correct / 3 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.88%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-5.3%
Equal stake on all 6 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.48%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (29) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 26.6% | 24 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −6.2% | 48 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.48% | 33 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
2 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Shorter terms, BTC has broken the downtrend vs NDX... and put in some perfect DeMark lows. (You can get those on Trading View - DeMark 9-13...I love DeMark). 2/ https://t.co/EL0cNbesAz”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 14.8% |
9 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.46 | 30 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up. And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong. I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot. But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding. That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this. Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less. So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate. Zoom out.”