That Martini Guy ₿

“Everyone is watching the price of oil. They're missing what it costs to actually move it. Goldman Sachs says global crude freight rates have surged from around $3 to over $20 per barrel in a year. The Strait of Hormuz risk premium alone accounts for $7 of that increase. Here's the problem... Even if oil prices start falling, shipping costs can keep fuel prices elevated, putting pressure on inflation long after the initial market reaction fades. I think this is where markets could get caught out. A drop in crude doesn't automatically mean the inflation problem is solved. If these pressures persist, the Fed could have less room to ease policy, keeping financial conditions tighter than risk assets would like. Bitcoin doesn't need another crypto-specific problem to struggle. A prolonged energy shock could do the job on its own.”