Loading…
@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
79
Top 21% · #5 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
25
1 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
55.6%
10 correct / 8 incorrect · 7 neutral
Avg return / call
+0.54%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
+13.4%
Equal stake on all 25 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.73%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (74) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 55.6% | 70 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −20.1% | 88 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.73% | 76 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
8 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Remember the Wheel of Shitcoin Samsara. Everything flows to Bitcoin in the end.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 63.0% |
52 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.13 | 79 | 25% |
All time · stated
“@Dannyseabird It was foretold.”
““But the instrument stops working as intended.” I can’t speak on Saylor’s behalf, but I believe that is the intention. Below par = no new issuance. Again, I think it’s an elegant design. It’s a self-repairing mechanism. When STRC isn’t at par: effective yield goes up, there is buy pressure from captain gain seekers, and no new obligations incurred.”
“I’ve never been more bullish on Bitcoin. https://t.co/4gvxuO5V4g”
“I will be bullish enough to compensate for the bears. https://t.co/MeChjkFtUt”
“There are going to be a lot of people that will regret selling their Bitcoin here.”
“It’s quiet. Too quiet. Meanwhile, #Bitcoin is in its most bullish setup ever. Plan accordingly.”
“@chamath @theallinpod You’re right. Better sell all your Bitcoin ASAP.”