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@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
61
Top 39% · #9 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
26
0 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
9 correct / 9 incorrect · 8 neutral
Avg 7d return / call
+0.30%
Avg return per call (7 day horizon)
Following every call
+7.9%
Equal stake on all 26 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.43%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (63) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 8% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 48.6% | 52 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −20.1% | 88 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.43% | 61 | 25% |
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
9 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Remember the Wheel of Shitcoin Samsara. Everything flows to Bitcoin in the end.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 61.5% |
48 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.08 | 70 | 25% |
All time · 7d
“Bitcoin's next leg up will be the most hated rally of all time. Everyone had the opportunity to buy the dip but didn't because they were waiting for $40k in October.”
“@Dannyseabird It was foretold.”
““But the instrument stops working as intended.” I can’t speak on Saylor’s behalf, but I believe that is the intention. Below par = no new issuance. Again, I think it’s an elegant design. It’s a self-repairing mechanism. When STRC isn’t at par: effective yield goes up, there is buy pressure from captain gain seekers, and no new obligations incurred.”
“I’ve never been more bullish on Bitcoin. https://t.co/4gvxuO5V4g”
“I will be bullish enough to compensate for the bears. https://t.co/MeChjkFtUt”
“There are going to be a lot of people that will regret selling their Bitcoin here.”
“It’s quiet. Too quiet. Meanwhile, #Bitcoin is in its most bullish setup ever. Plan accordingly.”
“@chamath @theallinpod You’re right. Better sell all your Bitcoin ASAP.”