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@CryptoHayes · Arthur Hayes, CEO of @Flop_Labs & CIO @Maelstromfund
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 7 more calls to rank
Scored calls
8
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
33.3%
2 correct / 4 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-12.01%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-96.1%
Equal stake on all 8 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-11.63%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (21) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 39.6% | 24 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −167.1% | 42 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -11.63% | 12 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
4 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“One Dollar $SYN is within reach, tell me why I'm wrong ... https://t.co/jZXknW941t”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 30.4% |
24 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.36 | 12 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“The ticker is $CARDS degens. The thesis is solid. The price will be pamping! Yachtzee bitches 😘😘😘😘😘😘😘 https://t.co/yPeEOBHBus”
“Remember the $ZEC target is 10% of $BTC's price. We got a lot of pamping to go. https://t.co/t0NXK72aok”
“Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo. However, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, Bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.”