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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 1 more calls to rank
Scored calls
14
1 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
33.3%
2 correct / 4 incorrect · 8 neutral
Avg return / call
-1.93%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-27.0%
Equal stake on all 14 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-2.09%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (22) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 14% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 31.9% | 9 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −40.0% | 64 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -2.09% | 18 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
8 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@Dirindin533 @BlockHorizonIO Bitcoin is indeed far off any model right now (e.g. also far below powerlaw). IMO it does not mean all these models are "broken" or "not working", it does mean that bitcoin is extremely undervalued.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 40.7% |
27 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.36 | 6 | 25% |
All time · stated
“Bitcoin closed August at $78,571 - Above 200 week MA $65k - Above 5 month (STH) realized price $72k - All realized prices are increasing again - Bitcoin in profit 72% (up from 50%) - Monthly RSI 51 (up from 41) IMO the bottom is behind us. I expect higher prices from here. https://t.co/h5IcFoBJG6”
“8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.”
“@kryptosopus Indeed, and 20x from here would be the same as bitcoin growth of the last 10 years (from $3k to $60k), not unrealistic at all IMO.”
“Bitcoin just touched the 200-week MA again.📉 Nobody knows if this is THE bottom... But history shows: 🔵Blue zones are the BEST buying opportunities 🔵They ALWAYS touch the 200W MA 🔵They go up: ~$250 → ~$4k ~$4k → ~$20k ~$20k → ~$60k Interesting times ahead!👀 https://t.co/zTv21qEjIM”
“🔵 Only ~50% of #Bitcoin is in profit right now. How long will BTC stay stuck in this blue zone? It could take a couple more months… but once this metric flips back to 🟢, a new bull cycle begins. History is clear on what happens next 👀 https://t.co/uPeVuzpHd9”
“Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market. Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023. What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?👇 https://t.co/LUFUNLblV6”
“✅ below 200w moving average (black line) 🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ... https://t.co/U4QoTaNBNy”