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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 11 more calls to rank
Scored calls
4
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
1 correct / 1 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 7d return / call
-0.65%
Avg return per call (7 day horizon)
Following every call
-2.6%
Equal stake on all 4 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
-1.14%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (52) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 25% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 33.3% | 41 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −6.1% | 69 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -1.14% | 69 | 25% |
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
2 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@Not_Z_Man @BlockHorizonIO Refitted right after the halving in 2024. Original model was fitted in March 2019. This 2024 refit used 5 years of new out-of-sample data. I will do a new refit after 2028 halving. https://t.co/YFjk8BJXwM”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 60.0% |
41 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.20 | 41 | 25% |
30 days · 7d
“BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price: • Realized price: $53K • 155-day realized: $72K • 2-year realized: $86K A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup. https://t.co/CoyyEcj9eY”