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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
75
Top 25% · #6 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
55.6%
5 correct / 4 incorrect · 6 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.24%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+3.6%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.23%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (66) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 20% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 58.0% | 70 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −3.3% | 76 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.23% | 73 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
4 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat) ✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line) ✅RSI > 50 (trend is up) ✅QE restarted Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀 https://t.co/kU0nUJXtdW”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 37.0% |
21 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.29 | 79 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.”
“✅ below 200w moving average (black line) 🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ... https://t.co/U4QoTaNBNy”
“I disagree. Yes, timing bitcoin PRICE levels is very difficult and S2F is too crude a tool for that. However, I still think that bitcoin's VALUE should be higher than e.g. gold ($30T) one day because bitcoin is scarcer (higher S2F ratio) than gold. So for me the essence of S2F hypothesis (scarcity drives value) is still intact, and that is the main reason I hodl.”