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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
Caller Score
48
Top 52% · #12 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
53.3%
8 correct / 7 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
+0.11%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
+1.6%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.08%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (53) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 20% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 46.7% | 42 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −0.8% | 79 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.08% | 52 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
7 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“$85k bitcoin .. clear skies ahead Interactive chart and data (100% free): https://t.co/H7ICfIauUt https://t.co/clFYH09gXq https://t.co/3vT6l5i2MO”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 35.7% |
18 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.19 | 70 | 25% |
All time · 1h
“@Dirindin533 @BlockHorizonIO Bitcoin is indeed far off any model right now (e.g. also far below powerlaw). IMO it does not mean all these models are "broken" or "not working", it does mean that bitcoin is extremely undervalued.”
“Last time you’ll see Bitcoin under $100k? Look at the October column. Uptober is loading.🎃📈 https://t.co/ltCDf9TaXD”
“Bitcoin ($81k) closed above 50-week MA ($79k). Next target: 100-week MA ($89k) 🚀 Interactive chart: https://t.co/OrlNcbTbZf https://t.co/ok7HnDVcL7”
“Bitcoin closed August at $78,571 - Above 200 week MA $65k - Above 5 month (STH) realized price $72k - All realized prices are increasing again - Bitcoin in profit 72% (up from 50%) - Monthly RSI 51 (up from 41) IMO the bottom is behind us. I expect higher prices from here. https://t.co/h5IcFoBJG6”
“8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.”
“Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (still decreasing) Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50) It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized). DYOR. https://t.co/2JlDHB4Jjq”