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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
Caller Score
48
Top 52% · #12 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
53.3%
8 correct / 7 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
+0.11%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
+1.6%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.08%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (53) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 20% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 46.7% | 42 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −0.8% | 79 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.08% | 52 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
8 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat) ✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line) ✅RSI > 50 (trend is up) ✅QE restarted Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀 https://t.co/kU0nUJXtdW”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 35.7% |
18 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.19 | 70 | 25% |
All time · 1h
“@kryptosopus Indeed, and 20x from here would be the same as bitcoin growth of the last 10 years (from $3k to $60k), not unrealistic at all IMO.”
“Bitcoin just touched the 200-week MA again.📉 Nobody knows if this is THE bottom... But history shows: 🔵Blue zones are the BEST buying opportunities 🔵They ALWAYS touch the 200W MA 🔵They go up: ~$250 → ~$4k ~$4k → ~$20k ~$20k → ~$60k Interesting times ahead!👀 https://t.co/zTv21qEjIM”
“🔵 Only ~50% of #Bitcoin is in profit right now. How long will BTC stay stuck in this blue zone? It could take a couple more months… but once this metric flips back to 🟢, a new bull cycle begins. History is clear on what happens next 👀 https://t.co/uPeVuzpHd9”
“Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market. Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023. What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?👇 https://t.co/LUFUNLblV6”
“✅ below 200w moving average (black line) 🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ... https://t.co/U4QoTaNBNy”
“I disagree. Yes, timing bitcoin PRICE levels is very difficult and S2F is too crude a tool for that. However, I still think that bitcoin's VALUE should be higher than e.g. gold ($30T) one day because bitcoin is scarcer (higher S2F ratio) than gold. So for me the essence of S2F hypothesis (scarcity drives value) is still intact, and that is the main reason I hodl.”
“Bitcoin closed May at $73,568 Market is 50/50 on if Febryary $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue. IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k). https://t.co/4uxdxH5oGA”