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Leaderboard / @PeterSchiff / 2070146730910237000:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 25 Jun 2026, 14:06 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:54 UTC

Pe

Peter Schiff

@PeterSchiff

As I warned, $MSTR’s death spiral has pricked the Bitcoin bubble. MSTR fell another 8% this morning, down 84% from its high. $STRC fell another 7%, bringing the total decline to 25% and raising the current yield to 15.3%, sending Bitcoin tumbling to $58K, down 54% from its high.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $59,374 at 25 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $59,500 at 26 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 59500.3 / 59374.19 − 1 = +0.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“@CoinImpulse Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but everything is getting much more expensive priced in Bitcoin, which is now down more than 50% from its high and headed much lower.”Repeat25 Jun 2026, 21:06 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “As I warned, $MSTR’s death spiral has pricked the Bitcoin bubble.”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$59,374

Evaluation price

$59,500

Move

+0.2%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 18:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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