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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #36 (Top 48%) · 90 days · 4 hours horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
27
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
59.3%
16 correct / 11 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+0.0%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.1%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+0.9%“I think Bitcoin is gonna pump any day now.”
Worst call
-1.5%“Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
108 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026, 20:46 | “I agree with @saifedean. NGU or NGD. Only one can get this thing adopted at scale. Both its hard-to-control properties AND its tendency to vastly outrun inflation are necessary for more people to hold it, sustainably so. Neither is sufficient on its own. And you're still pretty early.” |
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90 days · 4h
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| $74,724 |
| 4h |
| $74,924 |
| +0.3% |
| correct |
| 9 Nov 2026, 19:24 | “Bitcoin long-term holder % supply-in-loss, one of my TOP on-chain metrics to watch, is coming back up... Watch this video before you hang your hat up. This appears to be a rebound, ladies and gentlemen. And last time: it rebounded, then CRASHED, sending price to the top. 👇 https://t.co/5E0sxoQAoO” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 9 Nov 2026, 15:04 | “Why am I bullish on Bitcoin despite the recent FUD? Watch me explain in this video- the data doesn't disappoint 📊 -In collaboration with my friends at @BTCPrague- https://t.co/XPowEBbJuk” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 8 Nov 2026, 17:32 | “A preview. And a video to come soon on this. 🚶♀️🚶🚶♂️ I believe this is, more or less, the Bitcoin adoption curve. Half the world to own Bitcoin in the 2060s, today only ~190M owning some. This is GREAT news - because price/value doesn't grow linearly with adoption... Stay tuned for my methodology, and for this to be added and tracked on the website.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 7 Nov 2026, 20:42 | “...will be zero *what?* One day dollars will be worth zero of anything. I'm sorry. https://t.co/WXA0vJKIUV” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 6 Nov 2026, 03:47 | “@SYGERD1 It's more like- no forecast is a certainty but the power law forecast is high probability” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 6 Nov 2026, 02:23 | “I would not bet against Bitcoin's power law forecast” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $76,115 | 4h | $75,520 | -0.8% | incorrect |
| 5 Nov 2026, 17:57 | “Well, we escaped the Bitcoin support rainbow temporarily - but we're back in it. Now at $75,675 - that puts us at about the 4th power law percentile. The support rainbow is capped at the 10th. But notice that, as recently as August, $75k was the 5th percentile. The bottom formation/trend is still moving up, but climbing out of a bear market bottom is painfully slow - with lots of noise just like this - before the pace starts to pick up.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 3 Nov 2026, 21:39 | “You kiddos on X saying "Bitcoin is boring you" are making me spit-take laugh. Looking fractally, and looking at movements over Novembers and Decembers, both this year and when we were climbing out of the 2022 low. You're getting OUT of Bitcoin? Sorry but are you nuts? https://t.co/yfzjsfpQTA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 3 Nov 2026, 15:23 | “@A_Life_Shared The correlation is real but has been breaking this year, but that will reverse if the Bitcoin bubbles coincides with this expansion at some point” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 2 Nov 2026, 04:01 | “I think something strange will happen in the late 2040s when Bitcoin is adopted by roughly half the planet and its volatility matches gold & the S&P500 and its price approximates $10,000,000 per coin ...something strange” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 31 Oct 2026, 15:38 | “The last time Bitcoin closed at HALF today's price was 11/30/23 - 1,065 days ago 🤯 At each past bear market low, the look-back was: 2011: 216 days 2015: 540 days 2018: 587 days 2022: 925 days - - - June's low ($58,525) sat 985 days from half, further back than at ANY prior bottom. Even at that low, a buyer from 10/19/23 was still up 2x. Not to mention - according this metric, looks pretty clear we're past the bottom, in case you needed another signal for this. We've got much higher to go.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $77,424 | 4h | $77,451 | +0.0% | correct |
| 30 Oct 2026, 22:48 | “Bitcoin is going to need another global crisis to move, ain't it.” | BTC | ▼ Bearish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 29 Oct 2026, 15:54 | “How fast does Bitcoin's cost of production grow? 418% a year in 2015 100% by 2020 38% Today⛏️ - - - This is typical power law behavior - growth that slows down but doesn't stop. The dashed yellow line is the power law prediction, and the real cost to mine tends to hug it (cyan). Price over the last 4 years is 41% per year; right along with cost to produce. - - - This asset is different - commodity mechanics may apply. Are you paying attention yet? 🧐” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 28 Oct 2026, 06:17 | “@dotkrueger 👀” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
