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@sminston_with · Unclaimed · Rank #31 (Top 35%) · All time · 4 hours horizon How it’s ranked
Bitcoin ⚡ Engineering PhD ⚡ Data & tools https://t.co/TaPKiZgBNX
Coverage 8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Calls
38
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
63.2%
24 correct / 14 incorrect · 0 neutral
ROI
+0.1%
Average return per call: what following every call with an equal stake returned
Max drawdown
−0.0%
Worst peak-to-trough of following every call, as a share of the stake
Streak
1
Right calls in a row, newest first; neutral results are skipped
Coverage
186d
8 May 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Best call
+1.4%“Speaking of crazy Bitcoin signals... Copper/gold ratio has definitely made a positive turn - having just crossed its 1000-day SMA - and it would suggest a bull may be coming sooner than everyone expects a la 4-year magic. Be prepared. https://t.co/f3FPkX9VGD”
Worst call
-1.5%“Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA”
Every token @sminston_with has called, most recent first. The badge is their latest call on it. 1 token, all time.
Last called 9 Nov 2026 · 49 calls since 11 May 2026
49 bullish · 0 bearish
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
155 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
| Posted (UTC) | Call | Asset | Direction | Price at post | Horizon | Price at horizon | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026, 15:54 | “How fast does Bitcoin's cost of production grow? 418% a year in 2015 100% by 2020 38% Today⛏️ - - - This is typical power law behavior - growth that slows down but doesn't stop. The dashed yellow line is the power law prediction, and the real cost to mine tends to hug it (cyan). Price over the last 4 years is 41% per year; right along with cost to produce. - - - This asset is different - commodity mechanics may apply. Are you paying attention yet? 🧐” |
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All time · 4h
| BTC |
| ▲ Bullish |
| — |
| 4h |
| — |
| — |
| unscored |
| 28 Oct 2026, 06:17 | “@dotkrueger 👀” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 26 Oct 2026, 17:28 | “@Dreamwav3 🚀” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 26 Oct 2026, 17:28 | “100,000 run here, similar results: https://t.co/ZlfoWlkea1” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 26 Oct 2026, 15:47 | “My good friend Monte Carlo and I ran Bitcoin out to 2034. 5,000 times 🎲 Not one run ended below today's $80K. The median finish: $1.48M 🚀 - - - Each line on the chart is one run, and the pink curve on the right shows the final distribution in 2034. Even the bottom 5% finish around $464K, almost 6x from here. He's very optimistic, and honestly so am I 😄” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 21 Oct 2026, 21:23 | “A base case arrow, a la Bitcoin cost of production. We've turned away from both the cost of production and the CoP power law - likely see much of the run-up into next year. NFA https://t.co/1CwGlj5Qr0” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 20 Oct 2026, 20:58 | “Full access to this and countless other charts and tools at https://t.co/LLG9ZjOH9A” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 20 Oct 2026, 20:57 | “Classic Log-Log Decay Channel Model. Bitcoin $1 Million just really isn't that far off. https://t.co/aQwig2FAGv” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,741 | 4h | $82,947 | +0.2% | correct |
| 19 Oct 2026, 18:47 | “Overlay Bitcoin's 2022 bottom with the June 2026 bottom and they're basically TWINNING 👯 - - - We're sitting right about where Bitcoin was in late February 2023. That spot led to one last shakeout and then a real breakout. It's only a rhyme, but it's a hard one to ignore, people 🤷♂️” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 17 Oct 2026, 02:33 | “In 2022, after the Bitcoin bear reversal, we had the first golden cross of the 'bear' market. About 2 months later, price jumped again by ~30%. If this repeats, the price will get above $100k. About a month left to go. https://t.co/ymulAjQ84i” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $81,290 | 4h | $81,488 | +0.2% | correct |
| 16 Oct 2026, 16:51 | “(2/2) AND it gets harder every year you wait. Each colored spiral is a start date - today, then 2, 4 and 6 years out. Every one sinks deeper, and another budget falls past its point of no return. The lowest monthly buy that ever reaches 1 BTC: Today: $3,089 In 2 yrs: $5,071 In 4 yrs: $7,934 In 6 yrs: $11,935 Power law price, not spot (spot sits well under it today). NFA. Stack early, stack hard, friends.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $81,355 | 4h | $81,605 | +0.3% | correct |
| 13 Oct 2026, 19:14 | “Bubble-free Bitcoin power law Fits with r2 = 0.997 Fair value today = $101,600 Eye on the ball https://t.co/UnEd3kLapS” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 13 Oct 2026, 03:02 | “I think Bitcoin is gonna pump any day now.” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,787 | 4h | $83,559 | +0.9% | correct |
| 8 Oct 2026, 18:56 | “Imagine freaking out in a few years because Bitcoin "crashed" to $197K. It's the reality we're likely heading towards. Each cycle's bear market bottom, plotted, fitted and projected 👇 https://t.co/Mohu3JqTTh” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | — | 4h | — | — | unscored |
| 8 Oct 2026, 14:30 | “Did you know you can measure Bitcoin the way you'd measure a factory? 🏭 It costs $50.4K in machines and electricity to produce one coin. It sells for $83.3K. So you're paying a 39% markup over production cost. Here's what matters. Across sixteen years, every time that markup was under 35%, Bitcoin was higher twelve months later. Every single time, no exceptions. Above 65% markup? Higher only 37% of the time. Today's 39% is at the cheap end of that range, and 70% of the last five years were pricier than right now. Might make sense to pick some up. NFA” | BTC | ▲ Bullish | $82,647 | 4h | $81,428 | -1.5% | incorrect |
