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@scottmelker · The Wolf Of All Streets | The Daily Wolf On @YahooFinance | Media Host | Author | Markets | Hot Takes | Bitcoin | Married up to @emimelker ALL CAPS = news team
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 11 more calls to rank
Scored calls
4
7 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
75.0%
3 correct / 1 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
+3.69%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
+14.7%
Equal stake on all 4 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
+4.12%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (59) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 78.2% | 59 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −6.7% | 55 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +4.12% | 69 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
3 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $731M, the largest single inflow day since January "Usually when we're talking about what's signal and what's noise we don't talk too deeply about the daily ETF inflows and outflows because it generally gets washed away in the news cycle, but when you have the largest day here in September, basically of the entire year since January, it's worth noting almost a billion dollars in inflows into the Bitcoin spot ETFs." "IBIT, of course, from BlackRock had 454 million of those, but six other funds also had inflows." "August had approximately $3.5 billion in inflows, strongest month since September 2025, and that was right before the October peak of the entire market. So this is a real trend that started in August when Bitcoin started to move up towards the end of the month." "It was the bond market that sparked this, the fact that Treasury announced that they were going to double their buybacks, that was the catalyst. But now we're weeks removed from that happening and prices are still high and inflows are still increasing, which means that there's actually an institutional, and retail bid underlying this price move, giving a lot more confidence that this is strong and that it could potentially be a lasting move."”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 40.0% |
9 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.33 | 83 | 25% |
30 days · 30d
“Bitcoin spent a historically long stretch in fear, and one week of greed is not the top "Crypto greed gauge hits highest since just before October's nineteen billion wipeout. I am seeing this narrative everywhere and it drives me absolutely nuts." "Bitcoin spent a historically long period in fear. If you were looking at the sentiment index it was fear, slight spikes out, extreme fear, for months at a time, something that had never happened before. We finally exit fear and get into greed for the first time, and you already have the crypto media talking about the October nineteen billion dollar wipeout and how this is exactly the same." "Take a look back at the crypto fear and greed index then, and you will notice we were in a raging bull market with Bitcoin going all the way up to one hundred twenty six thousand. Much like how we have been in fear here, we had a long sustained period of greed and extreme greed." "We just got there. This is just the beginning of a sentiment shift, and it is disingenuous to compare it to the top of the entire bull market. Much like RSI can stay overbought for a very long time when things get going, so can greed sentiment remain elevated. I think this is a bullish narrative and not a bearish narrative."”
“Bitcoin needs to hold above around $82,800 to break the bearish structure "I do believe we are likely near a bottom. All the signals I've been telling you about for months were there, and now we've passed some fundamental levels that I think are important" "That said, for the technical analysts out there, Bitcoin needs to get above around $82,800 and hold there to make a new higher high and abolish the bearish market structure that still exists" "If I had a gun to my head, I would imagine we see some sort of retracement to some degree. Let RSI cool off, let the chart cool off a bit, maybe go back and test the low 70s or high 60s, get people thinking we're in a bear market again, and then gain fuel for that next rally" "It's nice not to be trading sideways at $64,000 indefinitely. It seems Bitcoin finally produced the perfect bottom signal, which was everyone stopped caring. Perfect time based capitulation"”