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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
3
Top 97% · #18 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
72
5 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
20.0%
7 correct / 28 incorrect · 37 neutral
Avg return / call
-4.40%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-316.7%
Equal stake on all 72 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-4.75%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (13) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 47% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 13.8% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −337.8% | 3 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -4.75% | 0 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
28 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin has officially broken to new Macro Higher Highs, invalidating the series of Macro Lower Highs that persisted since October 2025 When a Macro Downtrend ends, a new Macro Uptrend begins $BTC #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.75 | 0 | 25% |
90 days · stated
“#BTC Slowly, that weakness is translating into Bitcoin's price action The Daily Bearish Divergences have affected price The RSI Lower Highs have persisted (purple) Bitcoin has lost the $77k level (orange) and is developing a brand new micro Lower High on price (black) And the multi-month RSI Higher Low (blue) is in danger of confirming a breakdown If the RSI bearish retests the Higher Low into new resistance (orange circle), that could very well confirm additional downside over time $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC "If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA" Already, price action is forming an upside wick beyond the 50-week EMA (purple), solidifying a potential bearish retest here If this continues, the breakdown from the EMA will be confirmed EMAs like the 50-week EMA tend to hold as support in Bull Markets and act as resistance in Bear Markets Thus, price struggling to hold the EMA as support just demonstrates that the trend is not yet conclusively "Full Bull" $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is indeed rebounding right into the most recently lost old support of ~$78300, potentially as part of turning it into new resistance Turning this level into new resistance would confirm the breakdown that the latest Weekly Close kickstarted Invalidation starts with a reclaim of ~$78300 back into support $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the 50-week EMA (purple) Technically, this could set price up for a bearish retest of the 50-week EMA into new resistance That said, at this very moment price is trying to reclaim the EMA If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to positioning itself for a repeat of May 2026 price action (red circle) Bitcoin needs a Weekly Close above ~$78300 (blue) to avoid May history from repeating $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xZpgixgVma https://t.co/XiEoJ77GMF”
“#BTC At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a bearish Weekly Close below the 50-Week EMA (purple) Of course, there are still a few more hours left until the Weekly Close occurs so things could still easily change But if the Weekly Close occurs just like this and then the 50-week EMA is turned into new resistance afterwards... There'd be a very similar situation to what happened when price initially retested the green 21-week EMA support but ultimately broke down from it weeks later (red circle) Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market So if they can't hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin continues its positioning below ~$78300 which is the Weekly level that price needs to successfully retest as support to move higher At the moment, price is below this level, prepared for a Weekly Close below, which resembles May 2026 Such a Weekly Close followed by a bearish retest would likely send price lower $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Here's something noteworthy about the Bitcoin February 2026 and June 2026 lows: Both bottomed at roughly the same price point (price green box) and at near identical levels of being Oversold on the RSI (RSI green box) Both times Bitcoin reversed to the upside towards ~$80,000 But when price rallied to the May 2026 highs... Bitcoin was drastically less Overbought on the RSI than it is on this current advance into ~$80,000 More, Bitcoin is forming a Price Lower High, which is important in the context of these major RSI Overbought differences The RSI Higher Highs together with the Price Lower Highs bring about a Hidden Bearish Divergence on the Daily timeframe at this major psychological resistance of ~$80,000 This Hidden Bear Div will persist, unless Bitcoin is able to break into a new Higher High on price bitcoin:native #Bitcoin”
“#BTC With only a couple of days to go until the new Monthly Close... Bitcoin is still finding resistance at the confluent historical point of rejection that are the April/May 2026 candle-bodied highs and the Macro Downtrend Monthly Close below the blue horizontal would both solidify this resistance and confirm yet another Macro Lower High bitcoin:native #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The Macro Downtrend is a dynamic resistance As a result, it will represent lower prices with each passing month This August, the Macro Downtrend represents the price point of ~$79600 But in September this will drop to ~$76300 With passing time, technically it will be easier to break this Downtrend because it will represent a lower price Which is why if the Bulls truly are in control then Bitcoin should be able to sustain these highs long enough to durably breach the Downtrend In saying that, Bear Market rallies aren't able to sustain their local highs and so time will easily verify the sustainability of this newfound strength for Bitcoin or lack thereof Hovering below the Downtrend incessantly leaves price vulnerable to rejection $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has reached the Macro Triangle Downtrend Technically, Bitcoin is still experiencing Macro Lower Highs and would need to break this Macro Downtrend to enter into a new Macro Uptrend $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xdfTbgsnl0 https://t.co/fLe9rajX4K”
“#BTC Bitcoin will need to rally a lot more that what it has produced thus far if price is to invalidate the "weakening support" idea At the moment, technicals are pointing to $60k as a weakening macro support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/jYqcE6WzUg https://t.co/Wyu52KkNzA”
“#BTC Bitcoin has formed yet another Lower High on this latest advance, rejecting from the newfound black multi-week downtrend line $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/aqEUo2fnjL https://t.co/QLtzarwGqz”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the ~$63k level (orange horizontal) which technically positions price for a bearish retest of this level Of course, price is pressing beyond this level right now But at the same time Bitcoin is finding resistance at the 200-week SMA (orange) as well as the newfound Lower High (black) where price upside wicked into A Weekly Close below the orange horizontal later this week would likely confirm the bearish retest and a rejection from the 200-week SMA is how BTC would get there $BTC #Bitcoin”