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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
3
Top 97% · #18 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
65
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
18.8%
6 correct / 26 incorrect · 33 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.34%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-21.9%
Equal stake on all 65 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.37%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (18) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 42% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 13.6% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −23.9% | 25 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.37% | 6 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
138 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin continues to try to maintain the highs above the 50-week EMA (purple) while any upside attempt is being immediately rejected Bitcoin needs to hold here a good while to demonstrate price-strength confirmation Once again, if this is a Bear Market Relief Rally (and you can always make this case for as long as price maintains Macro Lower Highs), price won't be able to keep these highs for too long $BTC #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.43 | 3 | 25% |
90 days · 4h
“#BTC Bitcoin is rejecting from the Macro Downtrend A Monthly Close below the blue resistance would not just solidify another Macro Lower High but would also build a confluent resistance in association with the Macro Downtrend $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/bws93zlkT9 https://t.co/qBMC4CNknc”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed at the highs Now starts the real test If this is a Bear Market Relief Rally, then Bitcoin could pullback as early as this week, or at least over the next few weeks Now it's all about Bitcoin proving sustained strength $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/kQsou2a4Ok https://t.co/JaoTYb6yI3”
“#BTC If history repeats Bitcoin will try to get as close as possible to ~$93,000 in 2027 But first, Bitcoin needs to fully confirm its Bear Market bottom and fully confirm a break of the Macro Downtrend $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is right at resistance (red) Each Bear Market Relief Rally thus far would retrace sharply in the week following a strong breakout rally Next weeks will be crucial But maybe even already next week we'll know whether Bitcoin can sustain these highs or not $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is on the cusp of performing a Weekly Close below the 50-week EMA (purple) This is a key EMA that Bitcoin will need to reclaim as support for additional bullish momentum beyond these highs In Bear Markets, this EMA figures as a resistance however And so confirmation of Bitcoin still being in a Bear Market would be a rejection from here and a failed retest of the 21-week EMA as support (green) $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The Macro Downtrend is a dynamic resistance As a result, it will represent lower prices with each passing month This August, the Macro Downtrend represents the price point of ~$79600 But in September this will drop to ~$76300 With passing time, technically it will be easier to break this Downtrend because it will represent a lower price Which is why if the Bulls truly are in control then Bitcoin should be able to sustain these highs long enough to durably breach the Downtrend In saying that, Bear Market rallies aren't able to sustain their local highs and so time will easily verify the sustainability of this newfound strength for Bitcoin or lack thereof Hovering below the Downtrend incessantly leaves price vulnerable to rejection $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin continues into what is becoming an overextended rally, approaching major confluent resistance The next few weeks will be crucial For bull bias to be maintained, quite simply Bitcoin needs to keep its highs and build a Re-Accumulation Range Which would be the opposite to what Bitcoin has done on previous fake-breakouts from price clusters (orange) Over the next crucial weeks, Bitcoin will need to avoid giving back all these gains like on previous overextensions out from these price clusters Bear Market Rallies haven't been able to persist at new local highs post-fake-breakout Time will verify newfound strength or lack thereof $BTC #Bitcoin”
“@Cryptophilos_ The same exact way, just check previous posts dating to late 2025: https://t.co/gNMVgY55JN”
“#BTC Another thing worth considering is this: Are April/May 2026 weakening as a point of rejection or strengthening? The previous two rejections imply slight strengthening Any upcoming rejection from here will be telling If the pullback is visibly shallower than -24% then there'll be a strong case to make for weakening resistance However, until then, one could also make an argument for price to follow the series of slight strengthening which would imply new Lower Lows Which is why the upcoming pullback will be very telling I used these same exact concepts for strengthening resistance at the Macro Higher High near the Bull Market peak and for weakening support when price was at $80k earlier this year: https://t.co/CYweqQDUi3 $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Back in May 2026, Bitcoin indeed rejected from $82.5k, falling short of the green 21-Month EMA resistance As anticipated, Bitcoin rejected from here, broke down from the purple 50-Month EMA and enter Bearish Acceleration over time (see post below) And now months later, Bitcoin is back at these very same levels, once again Break the Downtrend and Bitcoin will confirm entry into a new technical Macro Uptrend Reject from here however and price will maintain its series of Lower Highs History suggests there's still time for price to continue its Downtrend Even though understandably it's tempting to throw long-standing Bitcoin price principles out the window, especially after such an impressive move like this But as long as price continues to print Lower Highs, then this move could be rendered as a Relief Rally Overall, the Macro Downtrend is the line in the sand $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
“#BTC This is the Macro Downtrend which I first drew in late 2025 and hasn't been redrawn since (see posts) And it has served as the major point of rejection for all Macro Relief Rallies that occurred throughout the Bear Cycle Those suggesting I'm redrawing a trendline unfortunately can't be bothered to read the previous posts featuring the very same trendline since late 2025 $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Here is a compelling theory In the previous Bull Run, I spoke about how Bitcoin was in an Accelerated Cycle And how price needed to decelerate/consolidate for a prolonged period of time to resynchronise with its traditional Halving Cycles That indeed happened (read the attached post) Bitcoin resynchronised with its traditional Halving Cycle And Bitcoin topped right on schedule in October 2025 Right now, given the latest breakout, one could argue that Bitcoin could be experiencing a 27% Acceleration in its Bear Market And if Bitcoin's Acceleration history repeats... Then there's a chance Bitcoin could still try to resynchronise with its traditional Halving Cycles and try to either bottom in Q4 of this year or form a close Macro Higher Low Technically, Bitcoin has the rest of 2026 to do so However, this perspective would be void if Bitcoin reclaims key Macro EMAs as support and breaks its Macro Downtrend dating to October 2025 Until then, Bitcoin Bear Market Acceleration remains a possibility $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is rejecting from the Macro Downtrend which is also confluent with the 21-Month EMA (green) If Bitcoin rejects from this confluent zone of resistance then indeed a retest of the 50-Month EMA (purple) could be on the horizon Generally, Bitcoin needs to reclaim both of this Macro EMAs into new support as well as breach the Macro Downtrend to confirm a new Bull Market At the moment, Bitcoin is still experiencing Lower Highs and has not experienced confirmed reclaims of key EMAs $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has reached the Macro Triangle Downtrend Technically, Bitcoin is still experiencing Macro Lower Highs and would need to break this Macro Downtrend to enter into a new Macro Uptrend $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xdfTbgsnl0 https://t.co/fLe9rajX4K”