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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
Caller Score
8
Top 92% · #17 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
78
15 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
19.2%
15 correct / 63 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-9.88%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-770.6%
Equal stake on all 78 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-10.33%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (14) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 44% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 15.1% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −770.6% | 6 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -10.33% | 3 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
165 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“ethereum:0xe28b3b32b6c345a34ff64674606124dd5aceca30 Injective continues its rally to now over +80%, revisiting the light blue circled highs Historically, this is where INJ had built out a previous re-accumulation range So as long as INJ maintains itself around these highs (ideally via a Monthly Close inside the blue boxed region)... Then INJ will be positioned to build out yet another re-accumulation range here to prepare for trend continuation to the upside over time #BTC #INJ #Injective”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
84 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.95 | 0 | 25% |
90 days · 30d
“#BTC Bitcoin has successfully post-breakout retested the Macro Downtrend (black) The Macro Downtrend is perfectly confluent with April/May 2026 highs (blue) $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/nRihWB8800 https://t.co/zqU4Ez3IDB”
“#BTC There's the invalidation, though no picture-perfect reclaim of~$78300 back into support took place Instead, price resembled more of a fake-breakdown below ~$78300 But because price did not bearish retest ~$78300, the bear case for additional downside was not validated Now, price is trying to position itself for a reclaim of ~$82200 into support $BTC #Bitcoin”
“Time-wise, there really isn’t much time left in the Bitcoin Bear Market Typically Bear Markets have lasted ~365 days Whether the Price Bottom is already in or not doesn’t change the fact that any deeper #BTC pullback going forward will represent a great opportunity for the long-run $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Slowly, that weakness is translating into Bitcoin's price action The Daily Bearish Divergences have affected price The RSI Lower Highs have persisted (purple) Bitcoin has lost the $77k level (orange) and is developing a brand new micro Lower High on price (black) And the multi-month RSI Higher Low (blue) is in danger of confirming a breakdown If the RSI bearish retests the Higher Low into new resistance (orange circle), that could very well confirm additional downside over time $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC "If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA" Already, price action is forming an upside wick beyond the 50-week EMA (purple), solidifying a potential bearish retest here If this continues, the breakdown from the EMA will be confirmed EMAs like the 50-week EMA tend to hold as support in Bull Markets and act as resistance in Bear Markets Thus, price struggling to hold the EMA as support just demonstrates that the trend is not yet conclusively "Full Bull" $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is indeed bearish retesting the ~$78300 into new resistance as we speak $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/2ZtfXvrFxq https://t.co/Y30INceAFx”
“#BTC Bitcoin is indeed rebounding right into the most recently lost old support of ~$78300, potentially as part of turning it into new resistance Turning this level into new resistance would confirm the breakdown that the latest Weekly Close kickstarted Invalidation starts with a reclaim of ~$78300 back into support $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the 50-week EMA (purple) Technically, this could set price up for a bearish retest of the 50-week EMA into new resistance That said, at this very moment price is trying to reclaim the EMA If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the ~$78300 level Therefore, that means price has lost this level as support and is technically positioned to turn it into new resistance on any upcoming rebound Bitcoin would need to demonstrate signs of reclaiming of ~$78300 to assuage current bearish positioning At the moment, the price predicament is looking increasingly similar to May 2026 (red circle) $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to positioning itself for a repeat of May 2026 price action (red circle) Bitcoin needs a Weekly Close above ~$78300 (blue) to avoid May history from repeating $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xZpgixgVma https://t.co/XiEoJ77GMF”
“#BTC At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a bearish Weekly Close below the 50-Week EMA (purple) Of course, there are still a few more hours left until the Weekly Close occurs so things could still easily change But if the Weekly Close occurs just like this and then the 50-week EMA is turned into new resistance afterwards... There'd be a very similar situation to what happened when price initially retested the green 21-week EMA support but ultimately broke down from it weeks later (red circle) Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market So if they can't hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin continues its positioning below ~$78300 which is the Weekly level that price needs to successfully retest as support to move higher At the moment, price is below this level, prepared for a Weekly Close below, which resembles May 2026 Such a Weekly Close followed by a bearish retest would likely send price lower $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Not much has changed structurally since late August Bitcoin has continued to Weekly Close above the 50-week EMA (purple) but is still below the major resistance (red) Whatever upside Bitcoin has managed to generate from here has consistently been cancelled out Bitcoin continues to hold the 50-week EMA (purple) but is currently slinking just below it so will need to Weekly Close above the EMA to preserve it as support Weekly Close below it however and we could see price replicate the bearish price action similar to when BTC Weekly Closed below the green 21-week EMA (red circle) Bitcoin will need at minimum continued stability here for progress and at best a new Higher High to shift the macro trend At the moment, price is still at a Lower High, still at major resistance, still undecided relative to the Macro Downtrend, and displaying continued signs of Daily Bearish Divergences $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has generally maintained these highs over the past few weeks Each time rebounding from ~$77k (orange) into Daily Higher Highs but each time also returning right back into this same $77k level, regularly retracing any gains made (a sign of price weakness) Meanwhile, the RSI has developed two Lower Highs, signalling mounting weakness, strengthening the Bearish Divergences Of course, while as RSI dwindles it is getting closer and closer to the Daily Higher Low on the RSI (blue) which is going to be a potential RSI support worth monitoring in the future Overall, if Bitcoin loses its Daily Price Higher Low (black) and $77k Daily support (orange) then the Bear Divs will validate and this provisional Daily Double Top will activate All about the $77k level on the Daily and the $78300 level on the Weekly and whether they can continue to sustain support amidst signs of mounting weakness $BTC #Bitcoin”