@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
3
Top 97% · #18 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
65
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
38.2%
13 correct / 21 incorrect · 31 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-0.12%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-7.6%
Equal stake on all 65 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.09%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (19) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 42% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 37.9% | 3 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −10.2% | 25 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.09% | 3 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
21 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin has successfully post-breakout retested its Macro Downtrend into new support In doing so, it is technically transitioning from Downtrend into new Macro Uptrend All Bitcoin needs to do going forward is to stay above the Downtrend and/or retest it as support if any deeper pullbacks take place Historically, Bitcoin has more often transitioned into post-breakout Re-Accumulation Ranges (e.g. 2019 & 2023) than gone for Downtrend retests (i.e. 2015) Of course probabilistically, there's a higher chance of Bitcoin developing a newfound post-breakout Re-Accumulation Range in the future in what is technically shaping up to be an early-stage Bull Market but it's worth keeping an open mind to both scenarios After all, since breaking the Macro Downtrend, future pullbacks are likely to take place in the context of Bull Market retracements Which significantly alters the risk side of the equation as opposed to risk in Bear Market Relief Rallies as downside during Bull Market pullbacks tend to be limited before further upside is confirmed $BTC #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.21 | 6 | 25% |
90 days · 1h
“#BTC Bitcoin has officially broken to new Macro Higher Highs, invalidating the series of Macro Lower Highs that persisted since October 2025 When a Macro Downtrend ends, a new Macro Uptrend begins $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC "If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA" Already, price action is forming an upside wick beyond the 50-week EMA (purple), solidifying a potential bearish retest here If this continues, the breakdown from the EMA will be confirmed EMAs like the 50-week EMA tend to hold as support in Bull Markets and act as resistance in Bear Markets Thus, price struggling to hold the EMA as support just demonstrates that the trend is not yet conclusively "Full Bull" $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is indeed rebounding right into the most recently lost old support of ~$78300, potentially as part of turning it into new resistance Turning this level into new resistance would confirm the breakdown that the latest Weekly Close kickstarted Invalidation starts with a reclaim of ~$78300 back into support $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to positioning itself for a repeat of May 2026 price action (red circle) Bitcoin needs a Weekly Close above ~$78300 (blue) to avoid May history from repeating $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xZpgixgVma https://t.co/XiEoJ77GMF”
“#BTC At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a bearish Weekly Close below the 50-Week EMA (purple) Of course, there are still a few more hours left until the Weekly Close occurs so things could still easily change But if the Weekly Close occurs just like this and then the 50-week EMA is turned into new resistance afterwards... There'd be a very similar situation to what happened when price initially retested the green 21-week EMA support but ultimately broke down from it weeks later (red circle) Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market So if they can't hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has generally maintained these highs over the past few weeks Each time rebounding from ~$77k (orange) into Daily Higher Highs but each time also returning right back into this same $77k level, regularly retracing any gains made (a sign of price weakness) Meanwhile, the RSI has developed two Lower Highs, signalling mounting weakness, strengthening the Bearish Divergences Of course, while as RSI dwindles it is getting closer and closer to the Daily Higher Low on the RSI (blue) which is going to be a potential RSI support worth monitoring in the future Overall, if Bitcoin loses its Daily Price Higher Low (black) and $77k Daily support (orange) then the Bear Divs will validate and this provisional Daily Double Top will activate All about the $77k level on the Daily and the $78300 level on the Weekly and whether they can continue to sustain support amidst signs of mounting weakness $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a repeat of bearish price history However, Bitcoin has a few more days to turn things around before the new Weekly Close, if it can A Weekly Close below ~$78300 could set price up for a breakdown like in May $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/p2byeo3R1n https://t.co/upWuzpGObA”
“#BTC The retest of ~$78300 is now in progress $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/qvqvadVvr4 https://t.co/upWuzpGObA”
“#BTC Can Bitcoin prove sustained strength at these highs? Previous overextensions lasted anything from 1 week to 4 weeks before a major pullback Bitcoin has successfully managed to perform a Weekly Close at these highs But Bitcoin will need to perform such a Weekly Closes a few more times to stave off downside and ideally rally to Higher Highs Because if this is a Bear Market Relief Rally, in the absence of stability here and/or a new Higher High, price could pullback strongly within a handful of weeks bitcoin:native #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed at the highs Now starts the real test If this is a Bear Market Relief Rally, then Bitcoin could pullback as early as this week, or at least over the next few weeks Now it's all about Bitcoin proving sustained strength $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/kQsou2a4Ok https://t.co/JaoTYb6yI3”
“#BTC The Macro Downtrend is a dynamic resistance As a result, it will represent lower prices with each passing month This August, the Macro Downtrend represents the price point of ~$79600 But in September this will drop to ~$76300 With passing time, technically it will be easier to break this Downtrend because it will represent a lower price Which is why if the Bulls truly are in control then Bitcoin should be able to sustain these highs long enough to durably breach the Downtrend In saying that, Bear Market rallies aren't able to sustain their local highs and so time will easily verify the sustainability of this newfound strength for Bitcoin or lack thereof Hovering below the Downtrend incessantly leaves price vulnerable to rejection $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin will need to rally a lot more that what it has produced thus far if price is to invalidate the "weakening support" idea At the moment, technicals are pointing to $60k as a weakening macro support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/jYqcE6WzUg https://t.co/Wyu52KkNzA”
“#BTC Bitcoin has formed yet another Lower High on this latest advance, rejecting from the newfound black multi-week downtrend line $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/aqEUo2fnjL https://t.co/QLtzarwGqz”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the ~$63k level (orange horizontal) which technically positions price for a bearish retest of this level Of course, price is pressing beyond this level right now But at the same time Bitcoin is finding resistance at the 200-week SMA (orange) as well as the newfound Lower High (black) where price upside wicked into A Weekly Close below the orange horizontal later this week would likely confirm the bearish retest and a rejection from the 200-week SMA is how BTC would get there $BTC #Bitcoin”