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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
21
Top 79% · #17 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
23
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
44.4%
4 correct / 5 incorrect · 14 neutral
Avg return / call
-0.68%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-15.5%
Equal stake on all 23 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.89%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (39) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 43.8% | 36 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −42.0% | 79 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.89% | 33 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
0 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
No predictions with this status
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 55.6% |
45 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.17 | 18 | 25% |
All time · stated