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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
30
Top 71% · #16 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
23
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
44.4%
4 correct / 5 incorrect · 14 neutral
Avg 7d return / call
-0.55%
Avg return per call (7 day horizon)
Following every call
-12.5%
Equal stake on all 23 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.72%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (38) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 43.8% | 33 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −42.0% | 76 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.72% | 27 | 25% |
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
0 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
No predictions with this status
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 65.4% |
52 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.13 | 21 | 25% |
All time · 7d