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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 1 more calls to rank
Scored calls
14
4 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
38.5%
5 correct / 8 incorrect · 1 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-5.93%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-83.0%
Equal stake on all 14 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-4.15%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (23) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 40.2% | 19 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −111.3% | 44 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -4.15% | 16 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
1 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“bitcoin is the only trump asset down from where he started shilling. saylor capitulating into americas buys would make a poetic bottom https://t.co/tTO1mnvZjD”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 61.5% |
50 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.39 | 6 | 25% |
90 days · 30d