Killa

“The bottom impulse candle never gets fully filled. A lot of people are always looking at the "imbalance", the "major weekly FVG", or the low volume transacted around that particular price region. Now, targeting imbalances can work, but during a bull market, the majority of imbalances formed by strong legs higher usually don't get fully filled. In fact, bottoming impulse candles historically tend to remain unfilled. And I think there's a relatively simple explanation for that. We chopped for 2 months, then pumped 27%, and the market is still sitting in disbelief. There isn't necessarily any incentive for the imbalance below to be fully filled. The imbalance formed in the first place because roughly 6B worth of shorts were liquidated, and that's only the visible liquidations we can actually see publicly. So, based on this context, the imbalance below doesn't need to be fully filled, and there's a good chance it won't be. The most we saw in 2022 was a partial fill, and even then, that wick was very quickly bought up. If we saw something similar this time around, it would equate to $BTC testing the low 70Ks. But again, that's not something I would guarantee either. The purpose of this post is simply to give you some insight into the characteristics of how bottoms are formed, and why these major imbalances can remain unfilled as price continues higher after months of chop. Technically speaking, I don't believe BTC will ever revisit my 62.6K 2x long entry again. I don't even expect it to revisit my 65.8K spot notional average that I shared publicly. In my view, the absolute worst case retest would be somewhere just shy of $0K, potentially the high 69Ks in the event of some form of capitulation. Outside of that, I don't expect anything significantly deeper. And even that could be a stretch. We could quite easily hold the 73K-75K region before eventually putting in another leg higher towards 85K. The main point is simple, an imbalance existing below price does not mean the market is obligated to fill it.”