K A L E O

“Read this if you're wondering why I'm so bearish on Saylor and his Strategy / $STRC ponzi. He got greedy and overleveraged, which has forced him to break foundational promises and make every $MSTR holder pay for it. I believe in Bitcoin. But the blatant worship it's become of one man and one company by "Bitcoin Maximalists" is absurd. The way so many people try and claim that it's success is dependent on this man pressing the buy button over and over again is also absurd. Flush the leverage and the idolatry, and then proceed sending everything to new all time highs with haste.”

“$33K by July is ironically back on the table once again https://t.co/h73sxi7tc4”

“Strategy's $STRC problem: Saylor has used the issuance of STRC to fund billions of dollars of Bitcoin purchases for the better part of the last year. The pitch? STRC sits above common shares with a $100 stated liquidation preference and have an attractive dividend of 11.5%, which gets bumped up gradually when the shares are trading below $99 avg. It naturally incentivizes buyers because the liquidation preference is economically supported by Strategy's ~844K Bitcoin on the balance sheet after debt and senior preferred claims, and the effective yield rises as the STRC price falls (e.g. at $92 STRC the effective yield is 12.5%). So, what's the problem? Their total debt + preferred senior to common claims are roughly ~$22.2B. Most of which isn't a problem ~currently~ (but there are billions of dollars worth of notes that become puttable in 2027-2028... and if MSTR is below conversion economics or refinancing markets are closed, those become hard cash obligations). Their preferred dividends are currently ~$1.7B annually. And they only have ~$900M cash on hand... so the runway math doesn't look great. So where does the money come from? The yield has to come from somewhere. Their revenue from the software company alone is only ~$500M/yr. That doesn't come anywhere close to what's needed. They realistically have two options for raising capital: 1) Sell more MSTR... They currently have ~$26B common ATM capacity available to them, but the issue is they're currently trading at an mNAV well below 1 already. Tapping into this is incredibly dilutive for common shareholders. 2) Sell more Bitcoin... Saylor already effectively broke the trust he's established for years to "Never sell Bitcoin" when he made a 32 BTC sale last week. The sale was tiny, but it gave the market a concrete reason to price the possibility of future BTC sales. But the primary purpose of STRC is to raise more capital to buy more Bitcoin, right? So in order to buy more Bitcoin, they have to sell Bitcoin. But we saw what the market did after a small 32 BTC sale. BTC took a massive hit in anticipation that there could be more sales... The machine is breaking. Strategy can defer dividend payments though if they want, right? Yes, but unpaid STRC dividends accumulate and then compound monthly. So this isn't a long-term viable option. Deferring STRC dividends preserves cash, but turns STRC from a cash-yield product into distressed preferred equity. And if the payments aren't being made to STRC, will any investor have confidence to buy it at a discount? And if STRC is carrying a massive discount, it effectively eliminates it as an option for Strategy to use to continue funding new BTC purchases... e.g. if STRC is $70, they'd be selling $100 of future liabilities for $70 of current credit. Not a great trade. Reminder that STRC's $100 is not a redemption peg. Holders cannot simply demand $100 back in normal conditions. The price is maintained by confidence, yield support and Strategy's desire to preserve the funding channel. If this dynamic persists, the largest corporate buyer of Bitcoin could shift from accumulating to liquidity management via selling or make the common shareholders of MSTR carry the burden by diluting them substantially (for as long as that can last). I could see this collapse happening fairly swiftly. It doesn't mean that MSTR necessarily dies off or is forced to immediately sell all of their Bitcoin (that door could be opened early though with something like a change of control of the company, delisting, etc.)... Not sure what the solution is, but one thing is certain: I would not want to be holding $MSTR right now. The risk is not that STRC instantly becomes worthless. The risk is that once STRC trades like distressed preferred equity, Strategy loses a major funding channel while its dividend burden and note put wall remain. The flywheel effect and the fear from what we've seen with previous major collapses (e.g. Luna / UST, FTX, 10/10, etc.) could lead to something similar here. This doesn't mean I'm bearish on Bitcoin. I actually think it'll create an insane buying opportunity. MSTR isn't Bitcoin. If it does fail, plenty of people will try to claim BTC failed along with it. We've seen it happen plenty of times with plenty of other names. Every time the people digging Bitcoin's grave were wrong. This time isn't any different.”

“Strategy's $STRC problem: Saylor has used the issuance of STRC to fund billions of dollars of Bitcoin purchases for the better part of the last year. The pitch? STRC sits above common shares with a $100 stated liquidation preference and have an attractive dividend of 11.5%, which gets bumped up gradually when the shares are trading below $99 avg. It naturally incentivizes buyers because the liquidation preference is economically supported by Strategy's ~844K Bitcoin on the balance sheet after debt and senior preferred claims, and the effective yield rises as the STRC price falls (e.g. at $92 STRC the effective yield is 12.5%). So, what's the problem? Their total debt + preferred senior to common claims are roughly ~$22.2B. Most of which isn't a problem ~currently~ (but there are billions of dollars worth of notes that become puttable in 2027-2028... and if MSTR is below conversion economics or refinancing markets are closed, those become hard cash obligations). Their preferred dividends are currently ~$1.7B annually. And they only have ~$900M cash on hand... so the runway math doesn't look great. So where does the money come from? The yield has to come from somewhere. Their revenue from the software company alone is only ~$500M/yr. That doesn't come anywhere close to what's needed. They realistically have two options for raising capital: 1) Sell more MSTR... They currently have ~$26B common ATM capacity available to them, but the issue is they're currently trading at an mNAV well below 1 already. Tapping into this is incredibly dilutive for common shareholders. 2) Sell more Bitcoin... Saylor already effectively broke the trust he's established for years to "Never sell Bitcoin" when he made a 32 BTC sale last week. The sale was tiny, but it gave the market a concrete reason to price the possibility of future BTC sales. But the primary purpose of STRC is to raise more capital to buy more Bitcoin, right? So in order to buy more Bitcoin, they have to sell Bitcoin. But we saw what the market did after a small 32 BTC sale. BTC took a massive hit in anticipation that there could be more sales... The machine is breaking. Strategy can defer dividend payments though if they want, right? Yes, but unpaid STRC dividends accumulate and then compound monthly. So this isn't a long-term viable option. Deferring STRC dividends preserves cash, but turns STRC from a cash-yield product into distressed preferred equity. And if the payments aren't being made to STRC, will any investor have confidence to buy it at a discount? And if STRC is carrying a massive discount, it effectively eliminates it as an option for Strategy to use to continue funding new BTC purchases... e.g. if STRC is $70, they'd be selling $100 of future liabilities for $70 of current credit. Not a great trade. Reminder that STRC's $100 is not a redemption peg. Holders cannot simply demand $100 back in normal conditions. The price is maintained by confidence, yield support and Strategy's desire to preserve the funding channel. If this dynamic persists, the largest corporate buyer of Bitcoin could shift from accumulating to liquidity management via selling or make the common shareholders of MSTR carry the burden by diluting them substantially (for as long as that can last). I could see this collapse happening fairly swiftly. It doesn't mean that MSTR necessarily dies off or is forced to immediately sell all of their Bitcoin (that door could be opened early though with something like a change of control of the company, delisting, etc.)... Not sure what the solution is, but one thing is certain: I would not want to be holding $MSTR right now. The risk is not that STRC instantly becomes worthless. The risk is that once STRC trades like distressed preferred equity, Strategy loses a major funding channel while its dividend burden and note put wall remain. The flywheel effect and the fear from what we've seen with previous major collapses (e.g. Luna / UST, FTX, 10/10, etc.) could lead to something similar here. This doesn't mean I'm bearish on Bitcoin. I actually think it'll create an insane buying opportunity. MSTR isn't Bitcoin. If it does fail, plenty of people will try to claim BTC failed along with it. We've seen it happen plenty of times with plenty of other names. Every time the people digging Bitcoin's grave were wrong. This time isn't any different.”

“And yes - it was a short. Someone had to be the sacrificial lamb. My liquidation price is $68.6K. Please make it hit. https://t.co/9Cs5SGS16w”

“Be more bullish. https://t.co/OiAl5qjbH9”

“Never sell your Bitcoin. https://t.co/kLy9Ytz0Ie https://t.co/4ZuhDHPL65”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC Almost there fellas. https://t.co/2PpE1EK54S https://t.co/06Cve654by”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC This question challenged me to think critically about what else is a "bear case". Outside of what I listed, the biggest one left on the table is cyclical performance. The last 3 bull market peaks occurred ~536 days post their respective BTC halvings. All within 13 days of that number. On the same note, the last 2 bear market bottoms occurred ~908 days post halving, both numbers within a few weeks of that number. Which brings us to where we are now, ~769 days post halving... it's a small data set to go off of, and there are plenty of other external factors that affect each cycle differently - but I still would see it as a decent counter-argument to any *short term* bullish bias I have. We're still ~4.5 months out from what would be the bottom if we were to continue to follow what's been a consistent trend (e.g. bottom in October 2026). Fwiw - if you look at the four month average price of BTC on either side of those bottoms, they were all incredible opportunities to stack more Bitcoin. So like I also said in the interview - now isn't when you want to sit back and trade leverage because you're bored. Instead, leverage your boredom and spend that time to build something great. I'd love to see a bounce at $70K like I've shared over the last several weeks - but I'm fully prepared to use any extra time the market gives me to keep working harder and stack more. Be more bullish.”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC for the love of everything good please bounce at $70K and run it back. https://t.co/6FU8UI4hQZ”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC Gameplan is still the same - retest low 70s and run it back higher. Just keep stacking. https://t.co/w9ybBZNDTx https://t.co/xGOe3G4xJp”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC Saw a bit of acceleration losing support at $76K. Still feel like the most likely move from here is continuation down to a retest of the low 70s before we see a real bounce. https://t.co/bMxrXea9fd”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC Retest support in lower 70s, run it back to 80s / 90s and range for the summer Send to $100K+ and new ATHs in fall & winter https://t.co/8KiqfpUdhN”

“#Bitcoin / $BTC Plan remains the same. Zoom out and be more bullish. https://t.co/cybkcwNygo https://t.co/LYrPIBjHhB”