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@CryptoHayes · Arthur Hayes, CEO of @Flop_Labs & CIO @Maelstromfund
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 7 more calls to rank
Scored calls
8
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
2 correct / 2 incorrect · 4 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.74%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-5.9%
Equal stake on all 8 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-1.07%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (24) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 45.8% | 45 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −7.8% | 52 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -1.07% | 6 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
3 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 25.9% |
15 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.44 | 15 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW”
“Are we dreaming big enough? Looking at this list of mostly dogshit coins, I think $HYPE should at a minimum overtake $SOL before this bull run is over. https://t.co/EZrZxHwNwR”