@CryptoHayes · Arthur Hayes, CEO of @Flop_Labs & CIO @Maelstromfund
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 7 more calls to rank
Scored calls
8
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
2 correct / 2 incorrect · 4 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.74%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-5.9%
Equal stake on all 8 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-1.07%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (24) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 45.8% | 45 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −7.8% | 52 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -1.07% | 6 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
4 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“The bank of the future $ETHFI is waking up. $2 is just maths. https://t.co/PJdnH4wEl0”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 25.9% |
15 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.44 | 15 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“My essay "Yen-quake" walks readers through how Buffalo Bill Bessent plans to manipulate the dollar-yen exchange rate and turn the money printer back on. "While a weak, weaker, and weakest yen propelled global asset markets higher over the past decade, like all good things for wealthy financial asset holders, it must end. The yen is the most undervalued currency globally, and it is a bone of contention for both major powers, the US and China, and critically, the ordinary Japanese voters. There are three ways to cut the yen Gordian knot, but the US Treasury and Japanese politicians prefer only one. I will explain the mechanics of each method to strengthen the yen and then conclude with why the final one is the preferred option. Then I will talk about politically how to execute the third option. Finally, which is why you read my human slop, I will detail why Bitcoin and crypto will moon as dollar liquidity surges higher. The three options: 1. The BOJ raises rates aggressively so that the dollar-yen interest rate differential, at least at the short end, evaporates. 2. The government cajoles domestic and public institutions like the GPIF to change their investment mandate to sell foreign and buy local assets. 3. [PREFERRED OPTION] The MOF repos its holdings of US treasuries to the Fed in exchange for dollars. Then sells dollars to purchase yen in the forex market. Before I get into the details, degens should ask themselves why talk about the yen strengthening now. So many folks over the previous decades proclaimed now is the time that the yen must strengthen and unwind the global carry trade. Two weeks ago, the US and Japan’s monetary mandarins carried out a joint currency manipulation, euphemistically called an intervention. Collusion and conspiracy confer different nomenclature when you are a plebe versus the state. US Treasury secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent proclaimed he wants the Fed to raise the FIMA Repo Facility’s counterparty limit so that the MOF can use its massive stash of assets to defend the yen.[4] The MOF also proclaimed that it is working hand in hand with the Americans to slam dollar-yen lower.[5] The authorities are telling us they are on board with a change in global currency relations; therefore, we must listen." Substack link to full essay on my bio.”
“The ticker is $CARDS degens. The thesis is solid. The price will be pamping! Yachtzee bitches 😘😘😘😘😘😘😘 https://t.co/yPeEOBHBus”
“Remember the $ZEC target is 10% of $BTC's price. We got a lot of pamping to go. https://t.co/t0NXK72aok”