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@CryptoHayes · Arthur Hayes, CEO of @Flop_Labs & CIO @Maelstromfund
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 13 more calls to rank
Scored calls
2
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
—
0 correct / 0 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
+11.52%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
+23.0%
Equal stake on all 2 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
+8.85%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (52) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | — | 47 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −0.0% | 38 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +8.85% | 66 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
Not enough history in this window for a trend.
30 days · 30d
4 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 20.0% |
17 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.45 | 72 | 25% |
“Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW”
“"Same Same But Different" is an essay on why you should back up the truck and buy crypto with both hands. "Bad Gurl Yellen and Buffalo Bill Bessent are the same whether their rhetoric before taking office differed. They both suffered under the yoke of politicians who couldn’t help themselves but to spend more and more money on whatever nonsense they deemed worthy. But they both decided being the most powerful financier in all the land was worth it. And therefore, when the treasury market convulsed, they responded with clever money printing stratagem. When they manipulate the treasury market by printing money to cap yields, it creates dollar liquidity which flows into Bitcoin and crypto. I will cover two such episodes where Yellen and Bessent changed the game, and Bitcoin responded positively. The first episode was in late 2023 when Yellen issued more bills than bonds. The second episode is right now when Bessent intervened in the dollar-yen market and then upped treasury buy back notional. Bitcoin ripped off its lows after Yellen announced her money printing scheme, and I argue it will do the same after Bessent reestablished his conviction to follow in his predecessors’ footsteps and materially increase the pace of dollar liquidity creation." Read the full essay on my cryptohayes substack.”
“The bank of the future $ETHFI is waking up. $2 is just maths. https://t.co/PJdnH4wEl0”