il Capo

“$BTC is back at $60k levels. The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far. High time frame (HTF) analyses take time to play out. Timing matters, but getting the perfect timing is never easy. As long as you catch the main idea and the macro move, that's what truly matters. However, my thesis is and remains: -This is an HTF strong support zone, same as in February. -Sentiment is now even more negative, with many expecting lower. -Several reasons to think the Middle East conflict shouldn't escalate further and have a proper temporary ceasefire ($Oil chart looking bearish short/mid-term, football World Cup, summer…) -Stocks could have been leading these past months with those strong rallies, and I believe rotation can happen from stocks to crypto in the last stages before a major bear market (will expand further on this) -Altcoins have been holding much better than $BTC, which is a sign of strength. -Many altcoins are 90%-99% down, without proper DCBs. This is not time to sell, but to buy. -I think regulations will bring more focus to digital money, especially ISO 20022 coins, which could benefit from it ($XRP, $XLM, $QNT, $HBAR…). So in parallel, privacy coins should also perform well as it’s the counter narrative ($XMR, $ZEC ...) Important to say I don't expect this rally to be a new bull market… I just think this could be the last rally before a proper bear market across most assets, including crypto, stock market, housing market… with some categories diverging (precious metals, rare earths…) Why? I will expand further on this, but as you might know, I'm bearish for the coming years. There might be some catalyst, apart from the Middle East war which should be reactivated later, that will trigger an economic crisis. Many pay attention to the Strait of Hormuz, but few do pay attention to the Strait of Taiwan. In my opinion, that will be the main trigger of the crisis and it will come as a domino effect, unveiling the underlying fragility of the current system. Eyes on China-Taiwan for later this year / next year. But for now, and focusing on what matters (the present moment), I believe we are in an accumulation phase for crypto. The move up could last some weeks/months, and it would be one of the most hated rallies. So basically my plan remains the same. I’m bullish and accumulating solid altcoins for the next few weeks/months, for the first time in years. Time will tell.”