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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 3 more calls to rank
Scored calls
12
3 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
71.4%
5 correct / 2 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
+2.70%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
+32.4%
Equal stake on all 12 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+3.03%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (69) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 17% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 73.8% | 76 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −24.9% | 82 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +3.03% | 73 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
2 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (still decreasing) Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50) It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized). DYOR. https://t.co/2JlDHB4Jjq”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 39.1% |
27 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.29 | 79 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“I disagree. Yes, timing bitcoin PRICE levels is very difficult and S2F is too crude a tool for that. However, I still think that bitcoin's VALUE should be higher than e.g. gold ($30T) one day because bitcoin is scarcer (higher S2F ratio) than gold. So for me the essence of S2F hypothesis (scarcity drives value) is still intact, and that is the main reason I hodl.”