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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 3 more calls to rank
Scored calls
12
3 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
71.4%
5 correct / 2 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
+2.70%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
+32.4%
Equal stake on all 12 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+3.03%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (69) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 17% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 73.8% | 76 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −24.9% | 82 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +3.03% | 73 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
5 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Bitcoin closed August at $78,571 - Above 200 week MA $65k - Above 5 month (STH) realized price $72k - All realized prices are increasing again - Bitcoin in profit 72% (up from 50%) - Monthly RSI 51 (up from 41) IMO the bottom is behind us. I expect higher prices from here. https://t.co/h5IcFoBJG6”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 39.1% |
27 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.29 | 79 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat) ✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line) ✅RSI > 50 (trend is up) ✅QE restarted Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀 https://t.co/kU0nUJXtdW”
“8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.”
“@kryptosopus Indeed, and 20x from here would be the same as bitcoin growth of the last 10 years (from $3k to $60k), not unrealistic at all IMO.”
“Bitcoin closed May at $73,568 Market is 50/50 on if Febryary $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue. IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k). https://t.co/4uxdxH5oGA”