Prediction evidence

In reply to · 10 Nov 2026, 19:39 UTC · context given to the AI

There's a good chance $MSTR is included on the list of MSCI removals published tomorrow, which will go into effect at the end of this month. My take: Usually when something is fairly predictable, the news is already priced in. MSCI finalized its new index eligibility rules on October 15th. The rules now exclude non-operating companies from its indexes. #Bitcoin has steadily bled off since then. Why? If MSTR is removed from MSCI indexes, JPMorgan estimated it could force ~$2.8 billion of selling from MSCI tracking funds. Strategy is the largest public holder of BTC by a wide margin. This obviously brings back the question from this summer of whether this could put Strategy in a position where they're short on cash and forced to sell BTC to cover obligations, since MSTR is their main source of raising funds. Where I believed that was possible this summer, I don't believe it's very likely at all anymore. This summer we were still debating whether or not Strategy would stay true to their guidelines of common shareholder dilution. Since then, they've shown they're willing to change metrics to justify diluting common shareholders in order to raise large sums of capital without selling large amounts of BTC to cover any current or future obligations. I see no reason why that'll change. People believe MSTR is a leveraged bet on BTC, so they'll continue to bet on it as that, and Saylor will continue to be able to print as much money as he needs to cover obligations. So while the news isn't particularly bullish for MSTR from a long-term perspective, I really see it having little fundamental impact on Bitcoin. So buy the fear, and remember: If you're bullish on Bitcoin, just buy Bitcoin.