Prediction evidence

In reply to · 9 Nov 2026, 13:04 UTC · context given to the AI

I’ve been tied up with family issues for the last week (always happens at the worst time), so have only really been able to sit down and look at things properly today. A few thoughts: BTC has put in five red weeklies in a row, closed below the 50W MA, and is well within the previous range with the bottom of said range being 60k. It's been hammered with endless bad news and headlines. Doesn't feel great, obviously. In 2023 when we exited the bear market we saw a sharp drop to the 200DMA and that was bought up and we continued our ascent. We were very close to that level this morning but didn’t quite tag (maybe front run). It sits at $73.2k right now. This was a test I have been expecting as an inevitability since we had our impulse candle. Buying the 200DMA post bear market exit (if this is that moment) is some of the best execution you could have had and a plan that could be blindly followed without letting outside bias prejudice you. As an analyst, I can see the other side of the coin: in the context of that previous exiting of bear market moment in 2023 we didn’t have so much sustained weakness, and were above the previous point of breakdown, whereas this time we are below the May highs which is where we broke down from this year. Not getting the push higher to the 90s has meant we have corrected back into the range, and made this look far more like a deviation rather than a strong exiting of the bear market moment. Will the bulls step in here at/close to the 200DMA? tbc, there are juicy targets below which seem like they have a realistic shot of hitting now that you finally have indexes likely heading for multi week/multi month correction. It is a do or die level, as nothing good happens when you accept below the 200DMA. You want to see strength and interested buyers here right now. The next best thing if that level fails would be a weekly close no lower than 66k to set a nice macro higher low, would also look like an inverse head and shoulders, which is a good bottoming pattern. Monthly is still bullish and painting this picture. I would very much prefer to not go lower than that. I still think the macro bottom is in for Bitcoin, but whenever you accept and linger in a previous range you open up the possibility of the range low hitting (60k) and if that hits, alongside mass panic, does it hold? To create new lows you would need a lot of forced selling to happen. Think this could only occur if Saylor gets into trouble, or something similar (always possible ofc). We had the set up for Bitcoin to show strength, but ultimately we have fallen back into the range on a sustained basis. This needs to reverse asap for a chance of fucking over the bears. Can't be any delays here. Good alts will bottom first, as they have been doing. We have so few of them, so it's fairly easy to keep a small watchlist. You can simply ignore everything else. It is a total waste of time and energy and it's all legacy garbage, vapour and failed ideas. Retail and institutions are not coming to buy any of that. Either we bottom here, and everything looks pretty damn good in ~6 months. Or we bottom lower, and everything looks pretty damn good in ~12 months. I find very few assets attractive when looking forward 5 years from now due to the uncertainty that exists with AI and how long the secular bull has been going. I get the anxiety around AI/quantum for BTC (hence why I also like ZEC), but once it overcomes that it remains one of the few assets that reprices vs everything else given enough time due to sovereign fiscal irresponsibility (not something I see changing). I still see it as a cornerstone asset in a non degen portfolio for the world we currently inhabit. We are more than a year past the top, so don’t get cute and don't overcomplicate it. Build your exposure and let time do the rest.