Prediction evidence

Ki

Killa

@KillaXBT

Seasonality suggests $BTC hasn’t bottomed. Price action suggests it has. I’m a big fan of patterns and seasonality when analyzing markets. I use plenty of technicals and pivots, and I mainly trade based on time rather than price. So why do I believe the bottom is in if it doesn’t match seasonality? Because before patterns, price, fractals and pivots, you need price action confirmation. You need to validate a pattern by analyzing how price behaves. That’s something many people seem to lack an understanding of. To validate X, you need Y. If a pattern points to X, but Y doesn’t confirm it, the chances of that pattern playing out decrease. Eventually, BTC will break the 4y cycle. It won’t keep repeating the same historical tendencies forever. People who believe it will are living in fantasy land. You need to be open to the possibility that historical patterns can break, something many people still don’t understand. Another important point for the sub-90 IQ trolls... I’m a swing trader. I’m a higher timeframe trader. I aim to catch the big, meaningful moves, and my strategy is based on trading the trend. I’ve been publicly positioned since 62K–65K, and I’ll CONTINUE to be bullish because I’m positioned from lower. But people keep trying to reinvent what I’ve said to fit their own narrative. The reality is that I’m in from lower, and I’m bullish since then. I’m not a scalping degenerate chasing dopamine on the 5 minute chart and trying to 100x a portfolio. I trade in a slow, steady and precise manner, something else many people on this app seem not to understand. Anyway, the moral here is that price action and structure come before validating pivots or seasonality. BTC isn’t going to keep bottoming in Q4 and topping in Q4 forever. In due time, we will see who is right, an who is wrong.