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Leaderboard / @TedPillows / 2118727165436985807:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 Nov 2026, 15:28 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 16:21 UTC

Te

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC is being shorted like crazy now. Even a slight pump, and they'll get squeezed. https://t.co/aXWfSrK0lM

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,754 at 6 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $75,666 at 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 75665.69 / 75753.56 − 1 = -0.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC is being shorted like crazy now.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$75,754

Evaluation price

$75,666

Move

-0.1%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 15:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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