Prediction evidence

Ki

Killa

@KillaXBT

I believe this chart is extremely important given the current context. A lot of people are looking at S&P 500, Nasdaq, crypto and the midterms, and speculating about whether the $BTC bottom is in. I don’t want to repeat myself, you already know what I think, but with BTC down 13.5% from its highs, I think highlighting posts like this can bring a bit more clarity to the situation. For the most part, BTC has bottomed in Q4 throughout its history. That’s seasonality, and it’s why people still expect the same thing to happen this cycle. I want to show why I believe that may not be the case. The BTC bottom is already in, and what we’re likely seeing now is the market derisking as legacy markets fall off a cliff, with crypto simply following the correlation. As shown in my image, BTC has formed 3 significant lows in every cycle, regardless of seasonality. Back in 2023, we saw a bottom form that is almost identical to what we've seen this year, with the second and third major lows very close together and formed by sweeps. Structurally speaking, we’ve formed the traditional corrective bottom. Seasonality wise, we haven’t formed the traditional cycle bottom. So, what am I implying here? I’m implying that, structurally, the market has bottomed and the bear market is over. So either you have more faith in market structure or in seasonality. I have more faith in structure because seasonality can change. I find it extremely hard to believe BTC will form a new low in Q4. From a structural standpoint, that doesn’t match any typical cycle either. If I am wrong, well then I lose alot of money.