Loading…

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 5 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC · fetched 5 Nov 2026, 19:32 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Altcoin holders, BTC dominance broke out and retested. I know. Feels like the worst news. It isn’t. Bitcoin held its bottom. Capital flows back into Bitcoin first. Higher $BTC means fresh money. Then the profits rotate into alts. Bitcoin moves first. Alts move hardest. https://t.co/hOC75afWqO

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,221 at 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $75,771 at 6 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 75770.93 / 76220.53 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “BTC dominance broke out and retested.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction