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Leaderboard / @benjamincowen / 2118364340122182125:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 5 Nov 2026, 15:26 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

be

Benjamin Cowen

@benjamincowen

If the NASDAQ can go back to the summer lows, then so can Bitcoin. https://t.co/XlW30AtgCl

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,922 at 5 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $75,754 at 6 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 75753.56 / 75922.02 − 1 = -0.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “If the NASDAQ can go back to the summer lows, then so can Bitcoin.”
Confidence: 88%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$75,922

Evaluation price

$75,754

Move

-0.2%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 15:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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