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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · fetched 4 Nov 2026, 18:19 UTC

IncomeSharks

@IncomeSharks

$ETH - Have used the same chart since August, with one prediction squiggle: fakeout above, fakeout below, and then run it to the $3,000s. Still looks like a real possibility to play out. https://t.co/ehqlW6cOxe

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,423 at 4 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,247 at 5 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 2247.3 / 2422.73 − 1 = -7.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -7.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH - Have used the same chart since August, with one prediction squiggle: fakeout above, fakeout below, and then run it to the $3,000s.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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