Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · fetched 4 Nov 2026, 18:18 UTC

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

Quoting · 4 Nov 2026, 13:10 UTC · context given to the AI

$ETH - Update If Ethereum reclaims $2390 then we are looking more and more bullish. https://t.co/yQeorH01WG

$ETH - Update Blasted through that key level. Just need to hold now for the big push up higher. $2520 next level to test. https://t.co/uYG9zq0m2Y https://t.co/tV7QVPxgrg

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,423 at 4 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,247 at 5 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 2247.3 / 2422.73 − 1 = -7.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -7.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH - Update”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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