Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 2 Nov 2026, 19:17 UTC · fetched 2 Nov 2026, 19:34 UTC

K A L E O

@CryptoKaleo

Quoting · 1 Nov 2026, 23:28 UTC · context given to the AI

up only

Alright fellas, gonna try a $1K to $10K monthly challenge with perps on Kalshi Pro. Starting off by countertrading extreme directional statements by popular KOLs like "up only" and opening a $BTC short here. join me here ➡️ https://t.co/8O9rYuaiGf https://t.co/Rg7xzWUN4Q https://t.co/NzY8xDSlha

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,951 at 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,518 at 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 77517.89 / 76951.47 − 1 = +0.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Starting off by countertrading extreme directional statements by popular KOLs like "up only" and opening a $BTC short here.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction