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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Nov 2026, 09:37 UTC · fetched 1 Nov 2026, 10:19 UTC

PlanB

@100trillionUSD

Bitcoin closed October at $77,430 No Uptober unfortunately, But RSI is above 50 for the 3rd month in a row, Signaling the birth of a new bull market. https://t.co/IOmLqFUEdD

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,980 at 1 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,954 at 2 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 77954.18 / 77980.01 − 1 = -0.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin closed October at $77,430”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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